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Monday June 3rd, 2024

Sri Lanka private credit down in Jan 2024

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s private credit fell 52.2 billion rupees in January 2024, after climbing 97.5 billion rupees in December and 62.9 billion in November, while central bank credit was overall deflationary, supporting monetary stability and reserves, official data shows.

Sri Lanka’s private credit spiked in December amid anecdotal evidence that import containers also surged ahead of a value added tax hike.

If the credit surge was linked to consumption imports, the loans will be liquidated as goods are sold.

Before the ‘age of inflation’ and chronic balance of payments deficits (aggressive outright purchases through open market operations to maintain a bureaucratically decided policy rate), some classical economists (including Adam Smith, in line with the the so-called ‘real bills doctrine’) supported limited note issue banking on a similar principle, analysts say.

Before the 1860s, Bank of England customers were bill brokers and discount houses, not banks which gave investment credit.

Central bank credit was down 91 billion rupees in January 2024 after growing 58.8 billion rupees in December, helping keep the external sector stable. An absolute reduction in central bank credit leads to a balance of payments surplus.

In Sri Lanka, the central bank passively support credit with standing facilities without a penalty rate and a narrowly targeted policy rate, in a deeply flawed operational framework that drives the country into external crises as soon as private credit recovers, analysts say.

Before 1971 (or 1978 for Sri Lanka) any such activity was subject to either an external or specie anchor, which was the final backstop.

But external instability and panic from short term credit spikes, backed by standing facilities, is supported by ‘exchange rate as the first line of defence’, policy (a type of sudden regime shift) now advocated by the International Monetary Fund in unstable countries that continue to be unstable, critics say.

SOE credit was also down 22.8 billion rupees in January 2024.

The Ceylon Electricity Board was also profitable and has settled some of its debt. Whether settling IPPs also led to setting bank debt is not known.

The CEB however cut tariffs in March.

Net credit to government from the banking system was 50 billion rupees (after central bank credit contraction) though commercial bank credit was 141 billion rupees. (Colombo/Mar18/2024)

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Water levels rising in Sri Lanka Kalu, Nilwala river basins: Irrigation Department

Sri Lanka Navy assisting in rescue operations (Pic courtesy SL Navy)

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Irrigation Department has issued warnings that water levels in the Kalu and Nilwala river basins are rising and major flooding is possible due to the continuous rain. People living in close proximity are advised to take precautions.

“There is a high possibility of slowly increasing prevailing flood lowline areas of Kiriella, Millaniya, Ingiriya, Horana, Dodangoda, Bulathsinhala, Palinda Nuwara and Madurawala D/S divisions of Ratnapura and Kalutara Districts, up to next 48 hours,” it said issuing a warning.

“In addition, flood situation prevailing at upstream lowline areas of Ratnapura district will further be prevailing with a slight decrease.

“The residents and vehicle drivers running through those area are requested to pay high attention in this regard.

“Disaster Management Authorities are requested to take adequate precautions in this regard.”

The island is in the midst of south western monsoon.

DMC reported that 11,864 people belonging to 3,727 families have been affected due to the weather in Rathnapura, Kegalle, Kilinochchi, Jaffna, Mullaitivu, Kalutara, Gampaha, Colombo, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Moneragala, and Trincomalee districts.

Meanwhile, the Meteorology Department stated that showers are expected on most parts of the island today.(Colombo/June3/2024)

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UNP gen secy defends call for postponing Sri Lanka poll, claims opposition silent

The UNP party headquarters in Pitakotte/EconomyNext

ECONOMYNEXT — United National Party (UNP) General Secretary Palitha Range Bandara has defended his call for postponing Sri Lanka’s presidential election by two years, claiming that his proposal was not undemocratic nor unconstitutional.

Speaking to reporters at the UNP headquarters Monday June 03 morning, Bandara also claimed that neither opposition leader Sajith Premadasa nor National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake have spoken against his proposal.

“I have made no statement that’s undemocratic. My statement was in line with provisions of the constitution,” the former UNP parliamentarian said.

He quoted Section 86 of Chapter XIII of the constitution which says: “The President may, subject to the provisions of Article 85, submit to the People by Referendum any matter which in the opinion of the President is of national importance.”

Sections 87.1, 87.2 also elaborates on the matter and describes the parliament’s role, said Bandara.

“I spoke of a referendum and parliament’s duty. Neither of this is antidemocratic or unconstitutional. As per the constitution, priority should be given to ensuring people’s right to life,” he said.

“Some parties may be against what I proposed. They may criticse me. But what I ask them is to come to one position as political parties and make a statement on whether they’re ready to continue the ongoing economic programme,” he added.

Bandara claimed that, though thee has been much criticism of his proposal for a postponement of the presidential election, President Wickremesinghe’s rivals Premadasa and Dissanayake have yet to remark on the matter.

“I suggested that [Premadasa] make this proposal in parliament and for [Dissanayake] to second it. But I don’t see that either Premadasa nor Dissanayake is opposed to it. To date, I have not seen nor heard either of them utter a word against this. I believe they have no objection to my proposal which was made for the betterment of the country,” he said. (Colombo/Jun03/2024)

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300 of 100,000 trees in Colombo considered high risk: state minister

ECONOMYNEXT – Trees in Sri Lanka’s capital Colombo are being monitored by the municipal council, Army and Civil Defense Force as the severe weather conditions continue, State Minister for Defense Premitha Bandara Tennakoon said.

“Within the Colombo Municipal Council city limits, there are 100,000 trees. Of these, around 300 are considered high risk,” Tennakoon told reporters at a media conference to raise awareness about the current disaster management situation.

Not all trees required to be cut down he said. “We can trim some of the branches and retain them.”

The problem was that buildings in the vicinity of the tree had cut branches on one side, causing it to become unbalanced, the minister said.

New laws would be brought in so provincial/municipal institutions could strengthen enforcement of building codes.

“We don’t have a single institution that can issue a warning about a tree. Not one to tell us what trees can or cannot be planted near a road.

“Trees should be suitable for the area. Some trees have roots that spread and damage roads, buildings. When the roots can’t go deep, they tend to topple over.

“Now Environment Day is coming up, and anyone can go plant a tree by the road. We have to take a decision about this. We have to enforce laws strongly in future.” (Colombo/June3/2024)

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