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Monday June 3rd, 2024

Ancient Sri Lanka was a trading hub, not just a farm: economist

ECONOMYNEXT – A view that is widely propagated that ancient Sri Lanka was simply based on agriculture is false, but the island was trading actively along East West trade routes, which contributed to its prosperity, a top economist has said, a phenomenon that is also supported by accounts of ancient visitors to the island.

"From ancient times, Sri Lanka was a country which had depended on both agriculture and trade for prosperity," W A Wijewardene, wrote in his weekly column in Sri Lanka’s Daily FT newspaper.

Trade in Pre-Indianized time

"Even prior to the colonisation of the island by migrants from India, there is evidence that it was visited by traders who had brought goods from the rest of the world and taken away the produce bought from local residents, the two main functions of trade.

"Hence, the country sustained its prosperity by tapping in to its location advantage of being on a convenient naval route that had connected the East with the West.

"Accordingly, the goods produced in all the countries in the naval route had been brought to Sri Lanka, stored in trading centres and sold at a profit to visiting traders."

During the time of King Parakramabahu who ruled from 1153 to 1186 alcohol had been imported from a land called Arak, according to Senerath Paranavithana, who had quoted Idris, an Egyptian traveller. The King had a monopoly in the product and re-sold it to traders, he said.

Wijewardene’s comments come amid growing concerns that student in state schools are being taught a false cherry-picked nationalist history through a centralized syllabus as had happened in some European nations which ended up with ethnic strife.

Agrarianism was also a sub-set of European rural-nationalism. Analysts say agrarianists railed against industrialization and urban life, glorifying agriculture, just as Trumpist nationalists today glorify an ‘industrial base’ against services.

"Sri Lanka’s future depends not on re-establishing a feudalistic agri-economy but a globally connected high technology involving digital economy," Wijewardene pointed out.

"Even to modernise agriculture, Sri Lanka has to introduce technology to agriculture."

Texts written by other travellers also refer to Sri Lanka’s importance as a trading hub.

A Great Seat of Commerce

In The Christian Topography written in sixth century, Cosmas Indicopleustes (Indian Voyager), who is thought be a merchant/monk from Alexandria of Egypt, had called Sri Lanka (Sieladvipa) ‘a great seat of commerce’ giving extensive descriptions about the island’s entrepot trade

He had travelled and written about various Christian communities in Asia, including one in Sri Lanka who were likely traders as well.

"The island also has Persian Christians, who have settled there, a Presbyter who is appointed from Persia and Deacon and complete ecclesiastical ritual," Cosmas wrote, according to an English translation of the original text.

"In this island they have many temples, and on one, which stands of great eminence there is a hyacinth (a sapphire) as large as a great pine-cone, fiery read, and when seen flashing from a distance, especially if the sun’s rays are playing around it, a matchless sight."

He said there were two kings in the island who fought with each other.

"The one has the hyacinth country (gem or sapphire country), and the other the rest of the country, where the harbor is, and the centre of trade."

A according to Cosmas, Sri Lanka engaged in both long distance and short distance (coastal) trade with India and transshipment.

"The island being as it is in a central position, is much frequented by ships from all parts of India and Persia and Ethiopia (Africa), and it likewise sends out many of its own," Cosmas explained.

"And from the remotest countries, I mean Tzinista (China) and other trading places it receives silk, aloes, cloves and sandalwood and oher products, and these again are passed on to marts on this side such as Male (around present day Kerala), where pepper grows and to Calliana (near present day Bombay) which exports coppe and sesame-log and cloth for making dresses for it also is a great place of business.

"And to Sindu (near present day Karachi) also where musk and castor is procured and androstachys and also to Persia and the Homerite counry and to Adule (near present day Eritrea).

"And the island receives imports from all these marts which we have mentioned and passes them on to the remoter ports, while at the same time, exporting its own produce in both directions.

"This same Sielediba (Ceylon) then, placed as one may say, in the center of the Indies and possessing the hyacinth receives imports from all the seats of commerce and in turn exports to them, and is thus a great seat of commerce."

Shipping Hub

Fa-Hien (Faxian), a Chinese Buddist monk, has also described Sri Lanka’s external trade, and shipping links, after arriving to the island in what was described as a ‘large merchant-vessel’, which also carried passengers.

The monk makes references to earlier merchants who traded with the original tribal populations (spirits and nagas or ancestor and snake worshipers), which may have been part of the folklore at the time.

"When the trafficking was taking place, the spirits did not show themselves," Fa-Hien recounted.

"They simply set forthe the their precious commodities with the labels of the price attached to them; while the merchants made their price attached to them, while the merchants made their purchases according to the price: and took the things away.

After hearing tales of the mild weather and luxuriant vegetation people from the countries of the merchants had ‘flocked in large number till it became a great nation."

In the Mahavamsa, Kuweni, a native princess who married the Indian colonist Vijaya, is described as a spirit (yaksha). Wijewardene points out that Kuweni was described as having cooked a meal from rice grain from Vijaya’s shipwrek, showing that the grain was imported in the early stages.

In his own time when Fa-Hien arrived in Sri Lanka there were foreign traders.

"In the city are many Vaisya elders and Sabean merchants, whose houses are stately and beautiful," he wrote. "The lanes and passages are kept in good order."

Fa-Hien said he eventually left the island also on a "large merchantman, on board which there were more than 200 men, and to which was attached by a rope a smaller vessel, as a provision against damage or injury to the large one from the perils of navigation."

He also described the risks faced by international traders of the time, braving piracy, losing part of their cargo, who had to travel with the goods trade and come back with different items.

The vessel was caught in a storm and sprang a leak.

"The merchants wished to go the smaller vessel; but the men on board it, fearing that too many would come, cut the connecting rope.

"The merchants were greatly alarmed, feeling their risk of instant death. Afraid that the vessel would fill, they took their bulky goods and threw them into the water."

They eventually repaired the vessel and reached Indonesia (Java-dvipa) safely.(Colombo/July16/2019)

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UNP gen secy defends call for postponing Sri Lanka poll, claims opposition silent

The UNP party headquarters in Pitakotte/EconomyNext

ECONOMYNEXT — United National Party (UNP) General Secretary Palitha Range Bandara has defended his call for postponing Sri Lanka’s presidential election by two years, claiming that his proposal was not undemocratic nor unconstitutional.

Speaking to reporters at the UNP headquarters Monday June 03 morning, Bandara also claimed that neither opposition leader Sajith Premadasa nor National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake have spoken against his proposal.

“I have made no statement that’s undemocratic. My statement was in line with provisions of the constitution,” the former UNP parliamentarian said.

He quoted Section 86 of Chapter XIII of the constitution which says: “The President may, subject to the provisions of Article 85, submit to the People by Referendum any matter which in the opinion of the President is of national importance.”

Sections 87.1, 87.2 also elaborates on the matter and describes the parliament’s role, said Bandara.

“I spoke of a referendum and parliament’s duty. Neither of this is antidemocratic or unconstitutional. As per the constitution, priority should be given to ensuring people’s right to life,” he said.

“Some parties may be against what I proposed. They may criticse me. But what I ask them is to come to one position as political parties and make a statement on whether they’re ready to continue the ongoing economic programme,” he added.

Bandara claimed that, though thee has been much criticism of his proposal for a postponement of the presidential election, President Wickremesinghe’s rivals Premadasa and Dissanayake have yet to remark on the matter.

“I suggested that [Premadasa] make this proposal in parliament and for [Dissanayake] to second it. But I don’t see that either Premadasa nor Dissanayake is opposed to it. To date, I have not seen nor heard either of them utter a word against this. I believe they have no objection to my proposal which was made for the betterment of the country,” he said. (Colombo/Jun03/2024)

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300 of 100,000 trees in Colombo considered high risk: state minister

ECONOMYNEXT – Trees in Sri Lanka’s capital Colombo are being monitored by the municipal council, Army and Civil Defense Force as the severe weather conditions continue, State Minister for Defense Premitha Bandara Tennakoon said.

“Within the Colombo Municipal Council city limits, there are 100,000 trees. Of these, around 300 are considered high risk,” Tennakoon told reporters at a media conference to raise awareness about the current disaster management situation.

Not all trees required to be cut down he said. “We can trim some of the branches and retain them.”

The problem was that buildings in the vicinity of the tree had cut branches on one side, causing it to become unbalanced, the minister said.

New laws would be brought in so provincial/municipal institutions could strengthen enforcement of building codes.

“We don’t have a single institution that can issue a warning about a tree. Not one to tell us what trees can or cannot be planted near a road.

“Trees should be suitable for the area. Some trees have roots that spread and damage roads, buildings. When the roots can’t go deep, they tend to topple over.

“Now Environment Day is coming up, and anyone can go plant a tree by the road. We have to take a decision about this. We have to enforce laws strongly in future.” (Colombo/June3/2024)

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Support for AKD drops to SP’s level while RW makes gains, Sri Lanka poll shows

ECONOMYNEXT — Support for leftist candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake dropped six percentage points to 39 percent in April, levelling with opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, while support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe increased three points to 13 percent in a presidential election voting intent poll.

The Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) conducted by the Institute for Health Policy showed that, according to its Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) provisional estimates of presidential election voting intent, National People’s Power (NPP) leader Dissanayake and main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) lader Premadasa were now neck and neck while United National Party (UNP) leader Wickremesinghe had made some gains. A generic candidate for the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) had the support of 9 percent of the people surveyed, up 1 percentage point from March.

These estimates use the January 2024 revision of the IHP’s SLOTS MRP model. The latest update is for all adults and uses data from 17,134 interviews conducted from October 2021 to 19 May 2024, including 444 interviews during April 2024. According to the institute, 100 bootstraps were run to capture model uncertainty. Margins of error are assessed as 1–4% for April.

SLOTS polling director and IHP director Ravi Rannan-Eliya was quoted as saying: “The SLOTS polling in April suffered from a lower response rate owing to the New Year holidays, and we think this may have skewed the sample in favour of SJB supporters. The early May interviews partly compensated for this, and it’s possible that our June interviews may result in further revisions
to our model estimates.

Rannan-Eliya also noted that a number of other internet polls may be overestimating support for the NPP or its main constituent party the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) by about 10 percent.

“We’ve been asked about some other recent internet polls that showed much higher levels of support for the NPP/JVP. We think these over-estimate NPP/JVP support. SLOTS routinely collects data from all respondents on whether they have internet access, and whether they are willing to participate in an internet survey. These data show that NPP/JVP supporters are far more likely to have internet access and even more likely to be willing to respond to internet surveys, and this difference remains even after controlling for past voting behaviour. Our data indicates internet polls may overestimate NPP/JVP support by about 10 percent, and for this kind of reason we have previously decided that the time is not right to do internet polling,” he said.

According to the IHP, its SLOTS MRP methodology first estimates the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about respondents and their opinions – in this case, ‘If there was a Presidential Election today, who would you vote for?’– in a multilevel statistical model that also smooths month to month changes. It then uses a large data file that is calibrated to the national population to predict voting intent in each month since October 2021, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’) at each point in time. The multilevel model was estimated 100 times to reflect underlying uncertainties in the model and to obtain margins of error, the institute said. (Colombo/Jun03/2024)

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