ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s next election will likely be a presidential poll, according to United National Party (UNP) deputy leader Akila Viraj Kariyawasam.

Speaking at a party event in Wariyapola Sunday May 28 evening, Kariyawasam said President Ranil Wickremesinghe is unlikely to give up the executive presidency yet.

“His talent lay in winning over his opponents to become president. Having secured the executive presidency with just one seat in parliament, will it be relinquished?

“The way I see it, the next election will be a presidential poll,” said the former MP.

Kariyawasam also predicted more price reductions as inflation drops, with further reductions in electricity tariffs and interest rates also on the cards.

“You’ll see that this is changing faster than we had anticipated,” he said to an audience of UNP members.

“This president started this as a single MP working with the support of everyone. Now the people who hold portfolios in his government are among those who opposed him the most,” he added.

Kariyawasam is not the first person affiliated with President Wickremesinghe to hint at an upcoming presidential election. There has been speculation in the media that Wickremesinghe, who was appointed after being voted by parliament, wishes to hold a presidential election before the end of the year or early next year.

Main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) leader Sajith Premadasa has already welcomed an early presidential election. Premadasa told the SJB Working Committee on Tuesday May 16 that he intends to form an SJB-led alliance of opposition parties in the event of an early presidential poll.

Noting that it is undemocratic of a government to schedule elections according to a timetable that’s best suited to its own interests, Premadasa said however that the SJB is ready for the challenge.

“We fully support the proposal to hold early presidential elections. Bring in whatever bills and amendments needed to hold it early, and we shall raise both hands in support,” he said.

The SJB Working Committee has unanimously endorsed a proposal by SJB member Sujeewa Senasinghe and general secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara to nominate Premadasa as the presidential candidate of an SJB-led alliance.

The announcement came amid reports and subsequent denials followed by more speculation that a number of SJB members plan to cross over to the government.

SJB Vice Chairman P Harrison earlier this month publicly pledged his support to President Wickremesinghe. MP Rajitha Senaratne has been speaking critically of the party leadership and praising Wickremesinghe’s reform agenda, drawing scathing remarks from his SJB colleagues.

SJB MP and general secretary of the Lanka Jathika Estate Workers’ Union Vadivel Suresh recently made headlines when he issued an ultimatum to Premadasa, demanding an apology for a perceived slight on the Indian-origin Tamil community that Suresh represents. He, too, spoke favourably of the president, hinting that a crossover may not be far away.

Accosted by reporters at an event attended by former SJB MPs Harin Fernando and Manusha Nanayakakare, who were the first to pledge their support to Wickremesinghe before he became president, Suresh said the SJB must collectively consider joining the government.

“We’re SJB. Harin, Manusha and I, we’re all SJB. Given the difficult situation the country is in, we cannot be looking at party differences now. I think it would be even better if Sajith and Ranil Wickremesinghe joined forces. It would be good if the entire SJB could join. We could revive the country then,” he said.

Meanwhile, the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which leads the National People’s Power (NPP) whose popularity has seen a notable spike since Sri Lanka’s worst socioeconomic crisis in decades, has been less than enthusiastic about the main opposition party’s recent conduct.

The leftist National People’s’ Power (NPP), which according to at least one opinion poll still enjoys a reasonable lead over the SJB, is unlikely to join an alliance led by the SJB, leaving the latter little choice but to court breakaway factions of the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). On April 24, Premadasa held preliminary discussions on a potential alliance.

Chaired by Premadasa, the meeting was attended by former chairman of the SLPP G L Peiris and other MPs who entered parliament as part of a two-thirds majority-winning SLPP coalition, namely Dullas Alahapperuma, Chandima Weerakkodi, Nalaka Godaheva, Channa Jayasumana, Udaya Gammanpila, Weerasumana Weerasinghe, Gevidu Cumarathunga and Dayasiri Jayasekara, all of whom were key players in the government headed by ousted president Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Premadasa opted to be Alahapperuma’s running mate in a last-minute decision to back out of a race for the presidency with Wickremesinghe who was elected by parliament with the backing of the SLPP.

Some of the SLPP dissidents were silent in the face of, if not outright supportive of, what the SJB itself has called the destructive policies of the Rajapaksa administration that contributed to what became Sri Lanka’s worst currency crisis since Independence. A not insignificant number of the dissident faction also remains ultranationalist in their outlook with regard to the island nation’s ethnic question.

If a presidential election does indeed come first, the only alliance the SJB can conceivably form at this juncture will be with the likes of the Uttara Lanka Sabhagya, headed by MP Wimal Weerawansa, former heavyweight of the Rajapaksa camp, and the Freedom People’s Congress which comprises MPs Alahapperuma, Godaheva, Peiris and others.

Which way the minority parties will go remains hard to predict at this point, though the president’s efforts to resolve Sri Lanka’s ethnic issue may earn him the support, tacit or otherwise, of groups like the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in the months to come, assuming discussions go smoothly.

The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), led by former president Maithripala Sirisena who had a notoriously contentious relationship with Wickremesinghe during their respective tenures as president and prime minister in the Yahapalana government between 2015 and 2019, remains unpredictable.

The support of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA), both of whom are currently represented in parliament as part of an SJB-led alliance, is also hard to predict as things stand now. (Colombo/May29/2023)