“Today’s anniversary is a grim reminder of the collective failure of the Sri Lankan authorities and the international community to deliver justice to the many victims of Sri Lanka’s three-decade-long internal armed conflict.

It is sobering to stand in the same place where, 15 years ago, countless civilian lives were lost during the last days of the war.

Ahead of this event, we have witnessed clampdown on the memory initiatives, including arrests, arbitrary detentions and deliberately skewed interpretations of the Tamil community’s attempts to remember their people lost to the war. Authorities must respect the space for victims to grieve, memorialise their loved ones and respect their right to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly.

UN investigations have found credible evidence of crimes under international law and other violations of international human rights and humanitarian law committed by those on both sides of the conflict, yet there has been little in the way of an independent or impartial national inquiry into such serious crimes.

Meanwhile, the families of those who were forcibly disappeared during the conflict have been left to search desperately for their loved ones. It is truly heartbreaking to hear from victims how long they have been demanding justice in vain.

The Sri Lankan government is best placed to provide answers to the victims, however numerous domestic mechanisms to establish accountability in the last 15 years have been mere window dressing.

The report by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights released earlier this week too reiterates the gaping deficits in Sri Lanka’s accountability initiatives that has contributed to impunity remaining deeply entrenched.

Tens of thousands of victims and their families continue to suffer in anguish as they await truth, justice, and reparations. We stand in solidarity with them here in Mullivaikkal today.”

Background:

During the internal armed conflict from 1983 to 2009, Sri Lankan government forces and their armed political affiliates committed extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances and acts of torture against Tamils suspected of links to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

The LTTE also launched indiscriminate suicide attacks on civilian targets like buses and railway stations, assassinated politicians and critics, and forcibly recruited children as fighters.

Violations of international human rights and humanitarian law peaked in the final months of the conflict, most notably in May 2009 when some 300,000 displaced civilians were trapped between the warring parties.

It was at Mullivaikkal, a small village in Mullaitivu district in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka, where the final offensive between the Sri Lankan forces and the LTTE took place, killing at least 40,000 civilians according to UN estimates.

Each year, on 18 May, a memorial event at Mullivaikkal brings together thousands of war-affected Tamils to commemorate those lost to the war and demand justice and accountability.

The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) this week released a report on accountability for enforced disappearances in Sri Lanka.
(Colombo/May18/2024)

Both the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government and now the Ranil Wickremesinghe tenure has been shown up poorly in terms of ensuring the masterminds and those who failed to prevent the bombings are bought to book.

As one sifts through various reports and discussions on the Easter Sunday bombings which took the lives of 315 and injured at least 600, one must, as Sunanda Deshapriya, activist and investigative journalist told a webinar recently, ask whether that tragedy was preventable.

If it was, then why was it not?

The webinar was organised by the Solidarity Movement for Justice and Truth (SMJT).

One interesting fact that investigators discovered, Deshapriya said, was that a phone number used by one of the bombers, was amongst a series used by the infamous ‘Tripoli Brigade’ that is alleged to be behind the Lasantha Wickrematunga murder.

This brings up the question whether the Easter bombers were connected to these covert groups within the Armed Forces which some observers have blamed for a number of violent incidents.

There were other questionable events. In an interview with TNL in 2023 former CID Head, Ravi Seneviratne claimed that though the visit to Vanathavilluwa by his officers investigating the destruction of Buddhist statues in Mawanella, was not public knowledge, the military intelligence had turned up there.
Deshapriya says, “We have to ask who ordered the MI to go there.”

In his interview, Seneviratne also said that Zaharan, the leader of the Thowheed Jamat that carried out the Easter bombings, first came to their attention in January 2019. They received tips of Zaharan’s whereabouts from civilians he said, and those were always that he had been sighted in various locations in the East.

However, following the Easter attacks the CID had realised that while they were looking for Zaharan in the East, he had been moving around in Wattala, Negombo, Mount Lavinia and Panadura. He alleged that while Zaharan seemed to have been secure in these areas, the CID had had no inkling of it.

The CID has informants everywhere, so why were they not aware that Zaharan was living in the Western Province, he asks.

SSP Shani Abeysekara is on the record as saying that the Intelligence operatives had “deliberately mislead the CID.”

Evidence indicates that former head of State Intelligence, DIG Nilantha Jayawardena, had wiped out his phone and laptop prior to handing them over the investigators.

“Why did he do that? When did he do that? What did it contain? There are many secrets about the Easter Sunday attacks that are yet to be revealed,” Deshapriya said.

He also states that “there are also many holes in Azad Maulana’s story on Channel 4.”

Despite these discrepancies, Deshapriya says that the volume of information about Zaharan available to the Security Forces, particularly the intelligence arm was quite substantial.

The bombings and the aftermath, the hysteria around the need to save the country and future generations, the demonization of the Muslim community all pointed to one goal; a regime change. Those fighting these past five years to bring the masterminds to book must also now, determine whether that heinous deed was intentional.

The Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) and the Commission of Inquiry (COI), both appointed to examine the events leading to the Easter attacks, concluded that if the Indian intelligence reports had been acted on, the bombings on April 21, 2019, could have been avoided, the report noted.

On April 19, the Centre for Society and Religion (CSR) released a report titled, ‘5 Years Since Easter Sunday Attacks: Still Awaiting Justice,” where it says that “various committees were appointed to collect evidence and provide a report of the findings.

‘A Presidential commission, a Presidential committee, and a Parliamentary Select Committee were appointed to investigate the Easter Sunday Attacks. The report produced by the Presidential Committee was not published while the Parliamentary Select Committee’s report was fully published, and the Presidential Commission report was partly published.

On 26th January 2023, the Right to Information Commission directed the Presidential Secretariat to make the presidential committee report public before 9th February 2023 after hearing an appeal filed by CSR. However, none of the major recommendations in the published reports have been implemented to deliver justice for the victims.”

“The reports reveal that authorities had sufficient time and enough intelligence to act on the suspicions and prevent the incident. SIS Director received intelligence reports from India on the 4th and 5th of April 2019 and again two reports on the 20th of April describing the possibility of the attack, naming the suspects, and the urgency of the terror attack.

Additionally, there was a dry run conducted five days before the bombings where a motorcycle was blown up using a remote-controlled device in Zaharan’s home base, and although the SIS learnt of the incident the next day, even after intelligence reports stated that Zaharan was planning a terror attack, proper investigations into this matter did not take place.

The amount of information that was received prior to the attack and the lack of action, investigation, and implementation of safety measures inevitably raised questions as to who was actually behind the attacks” CSR said.

“A less dysfunctional government might have still failed to connect incoming intelligence with the information on Zaharan in Sri Lankan police files, but it would have tried much harder,” it added.
The report goes on to note the lapses made by the Sri Lanka government’s leaders.

“Regardless of the number of intelligence reports both by the U.S and India, that had warned about imminent attacks targeting churches and hotels in Sri Lanka, President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe both acted out of gross ignorance. Even, at the time the unfortunate incident has happened, the executive president Mr. Sirisena was out of the country and returned a considerable time after the incident.”

Fr. De Silva also asks as to how the Police would conduct an impartial inquiry into the role of the various personnel who were holding powerful positions at the time and still continue to do so.

Gen Salley remains as head of Intelligence. The DIG in charge of the area where the Katuwapitiya church is situated in that period was Deshabandu Tennekoon, who is now the Inspector General of Police. DIG Nilantha Jayawardene who was the Intelligence chief is now Senior DIG Administration, a post second only to the IGP.

“In seeking justice how can we engage with these leaders in power who are themselves accused of complicity in these incidents,” asks Fr. De Silva. “We are doubtful we can get justice without a change in the people holding office.”

As election fever hots up, the main opposition political parties are jostling with each other promising to bring the masterminds of the Easter attacks to book, under their regimes. Both the SJB and the JVP led NPP have put out official statements on the course of action they would take if elected to power.

Speaking at a zoom discussion organised by the Australia Sri Lanka Forum for Justice for Easter Victims on April 17, SJB’s Eran Wickremaratne said his party would introduce amendments to existing structures, to create an Independent Public Prosecutors Office to handle such cases.

The SJB plans to establish a permanent office with members of Scotland Yard and the FBI to work alongside local investigators to bring closure to the Easter tragedy, he said.

Meanwhile, the JVP led NPP presented a 7 point plan which would address the inaction of the authorities, and take legal action against all those directly and indirectly involved in the Easter Sunday bombings.
Both political parties have presented their proposals to Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith. Let’s hope they are not mere election promises!

The Easter Sunday victims have been political pawns these past five years, just as the many others who lost family members in the various conflicts the country has been through.
They too, are still awaiting justice.

“Inequality results in adverse economic, social and political consequences,” write Lakmini Fernando and Sulochana Silva.

“Addressing gender inequality is crucial to achieve stronger and more sustainable development.”

In 2021, female labour force participation was 22 percent for South Asia and 32 percent Sri Lanka, while all other regions except the Middle East and North Africa (18 percent) recorded more than 50 percent participation.

Also, a gender wage gap of 24 percent indicates that on average, women are paid approximately 20% less than men in Sri Lanka.

The full analysis is reproduced below;

A Lost Development Opportunity: Regional Integration to Empower Sri Lankan Women

Gender equality is a shared vision for social justice. Addressing gender inequality is crucial to achieve stronger and more sustainable development. While regional integration is seen as a potential development strategy to promote inclusive and sustainable growth and efforts toward women’s economic empowerment, gender equality tends to be sidelined in such discussions.

Inequality results in adverse economic, social and political consequences. Unlike the advanced economies, improvements in education, fertility and incomes have not been able to enhance women’s labour force participation in Sri Lanka.

Gender equality is a shared vision for social justice. Addressing gender inequality is crucial to achieve stronger and more sustainable development. While regional integration is seen as a potential development strategy to promote inclusive and sustainable growth and efforts toward women’s economic empowerment, gender equality tends to be sidelined in such discussions.

Thus, identifying and implementing the right policy mix for meaningful regional integration is vital in creating gender inclusive sustainable growth.

The impact of greater economic opportunities for women

Greater economic opportunities for women create a domino effect. In South Asia, equal employment opportunities for men and women are estimated to enhance incomes by 25%, including increased intraregional trade of USD 44 billion.

Yet, despite the improvements in education and health outcomes, low women’s economic participation remains a critical development challenge for developing economies including South Asia.

In 2021, female labour force participation was 22% and 32% for South Asia and Sri Lanka, respectively, while all other regions except the Middle East and North Africa (18%) recorded more than 50% participation.

Also, a gender wage gap of 24% indicates that on average, women are paid approximately 20% less than men in Sri Lanka.

To achieve gender parity, South Asia will take 149 years, while this is 67 and 95 years for Europe and North America, respectively.

Regional integration: Current challenges and opportunities

Unlike South Asia, other regions like East Asia, Europe and North America are harnessing the potential benefits of regional integration by developing strong relationships with their neighbours.

Intraregional trade accounts for 50% of total trade in East Asia and 22% in Sub-Saharan Africa, but only 5% in South Asia.

Intraregional trade as a share of regional gross domestic product (GDP) is only 1% in South Asia while it is 2.6% and 11% in Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia and the Pacific, respectively.

South Asian regional integration has been restricted mainly by high tariff and non-tariff measures, lack of trust and political will, weak policy implementation and poor infrastructure.

Although the impacts are asymmetric, deeper regional integration benefits any country. Consumers gain access to cheaper goods and services; producers and exporters gain access to inputs, investment and production networks; and firms gain market access for goods and services.

Reforming stagnating dimensions of regional integration toward gender inclusive growth

To promote gender-inclusive growth, a recent IPS study shows that it is essential to improve the stagnating dimensions of regional integration. This process is complex and varies by country due to its multidimensional nature.

There are six key dimensions: trade and investment, movement of capital, regional value chains, infrastructure and connectivity, people’s mobility and legal and institutional basis for international policy cooperation.

Evenly distributed dimensions lead to better regional integration and higher women’s economic participation. With the most evenly distributed dimensions, the EU is recognised as the most advanced and consistent in regional integration (Figure 1) with more than 50% women’s economic participation.

In contrast, South Asia’s significantly uneven dimensional distribution makes it one of the least integrated and lowest women’s economic participating regions in the world.

South Asia focuses more on infrastructure and connectivity and movement of people and less on money and finance.

Similarly, Sri Lanka’s regional integration is impacted heavily by infrastructure and connectivity and this is no surprise as nearly 60% of public investment has been allocated to infrastructure development in the last few decades (Table 1).

Figure 1: Heterogeneity in the contribution of multiple dimensions of regional integration

Notes: Regions with the most evenly distributed dimensions have the highest female labour force participation. eg: European Union.

Source: Adopted from Park, C. Y., & Claveria, R. (2018). Does regional integration matter for inclusive growth? Evidence from the multidimensional regional integration index. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series (559).

Table 1: Identifying specific dimensions of regional integration toward gender-inclusive growth

Notes: The multidimensional regional integration index (MDRII) provides a cumulative score of six dimensions: trade and investment; money and finance; regional value chain; movement of people; infrastructure and connectivity and institutional and social integration. A higher score indicates better integration. The least contributory dimensions (with scores below 0.4) require significant reforms to ensure that regional integration promotes gender inclusive sustainable growth.

Source: Author’s calculations based on Park, & Claveria (2018)

The IPS study further reveals that improvements to institutional and social integration and money and finance reduce nearly 50% of gender inequality in South Asia.

Furthermore, better institutional and social integration and movement of people positively impact women in industry and services sectors but not agriculture. In developing countries, women often engage in labour-intensive sectors, which are low-skilled and low-paid, referred to as the ‘feminisation of labour’.

Regional integration creates new employment opportunities in the manufacturing and services sectors. This results in technology-led ‘defeminisation of labour’ leading to increased demand for female labour and higher wages.

In contrast, trade and integration negatively impact women in agriculture. The reason is their limited skills and mobility. Regional integration alters the structure of production where sectors with export opportunities may expand, while import substitution sectors may contract.

Women in the contracting sectors may face job losses. Even in expanding sectors, women may not have benefitted due to horizontal and vertical gender segregation. Thus, selective opening of sectors and providing opportunities for upskilling and reskilling of women will help minimise the negative impacts.

Way forward

Sri Lanka is yet to receive the full benefits of regional integration. Inherently, regional integration is multidimensional, and its impacts are country-specific.

In boosting gender inclusive sustainable growth, a balanced contribution of different dimensions of regional integration is required.

Improvements to most stagnating dimensions like institutional and social integration and money and finance would reduce gender inequality by nearly 50%.

Thus, robust domestic policies that support the establishment of quality institutions and governance systems and financial conduct are most effective in making regional integration a strategy that stimulates inclusive growth and women’s economic empowerment in Sri Lanka.

“The World Bank South Asia Gender Innovation Lab’s (SAR GIL) Women’s Economic Empowerment in South Asia Community of Practice provided support for this research.” (Colombo/Apr4/2024)

Original blog

Across the region, more often than not, women are nominated to fill a seat falling vacant by the death of a male family member, as the party leadership made up of men is confident of winning on the ‘sympathy vote,’ or simply to fill a quota, and not for their qualifications and capabilities.

In Sri Lanka, despite a hard-won battle for a 25 per cent quota for women at the Local Government level six years ago, the drive to have more women at decision making levels continues. It is yet to be seen if the new electoral system at the provincial level will yield the results women seek. Representation of women in the Sri Lankan Parliament is a dismal 5.3 per cent (only 12 of the 225 MPs are women), Dr Sudharshani Fernandopulle, MP pointed out.

Dr Fernandopulle, who entered politics in 2010 following the assassination of her husband, explained that while that first foray into politics was easy, as she contested to fill her husband’s seat and had the sympathy of the electorate, since then, it has been an uphill battle to continue to be nominated and to retain her seat.

On the panel, along with Dr Fernandopulle, were Sania Kamran, Member of the Punjab Provincial Assembly, Pakistan and Anusha Nepal, Communications Officer, Office of MP Gagan Kumar Thapa, Nepal. The webinar held on March 15, 2024, was moderated by Divya Jain, Strategic Advisor and Political Consultant, India, and organised by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, South Asia.

Though it’s the family connection that brings many women into politics, Fernandopulle added that under Sri Lanka’s proportional representation system, the battle is not simply between rival political party candidates, but within the party itself. In an environment where the party leadership is almost entirely male, with no women even on the nomination boards, interventions by female politicians to the General Secretaries of political parties to provide for better female representation have fallen on deaf ears, Fernandopulle alleges.

For the few who do get nominated, limited campaign funds, the reluctance to dabble in bribery to entice voters, negative portrayal in the media, and in some instances, being undermined by their own women who favour promoting male counterparts, are constant hurdles. Unlike their male colleagues, women must also balance their family responsibilities, she added.

The Parliamentary Women’s Caucus meanwhile is refusing to take a step back; private members motion pushing for increased female representation at the legislature, and a call for an amendment to the preferential system where a vote for a woman would be mandatory is on the cards.

The Caucus is hopeful the legal reforms will be introduced before the next parliamentary election is called. Interventions made to the Presidential Commission on electoral reforms have been received positively, she stated. As well, some civil society groups are providing training to women politicians and those aspiring to get into decision making positions.

It has not been an uphill battle for Anusha Nepal, who has the support of family and friends, and who has led election campaigns since 2020, ever since she became eligible to vote.

However, the same cannot be said for most other women politicians in her country, especially those living outside Kathmandu. Citing an example of women politicians receiving very little air time, she noted that when questioned, the Station Head of a broadcasting company had stated that accessing the women proved difficult. However, the women had claimed they were never contacted!

Campaign financing is one deterrent she added, pointing out that at the local level, 98 per cent of those holding the post of Chairman are males, while women must be content with a Deputy position. Women are objectified in the media, and though political parties nominate women at all levels, that is done only if it is a requirement.

In a country where only 23.8 per cent of women have access to land and finances, the struggle for equal representation at the hustings is all the more difficult in the male-dominated political structure, Nepal stated.

Pakistan’s Sania Kamran sees a need for more legislation that would pave the way for more women to enter politics and at all other decision-making levels. Women bring the expertise of running their homes and balancing household budgets but are considered unfit to hold decision-making positions in the public sphere, she points out.

As in other South Asian nations, they are used for the sympathy vote. Kamran points out that while women enter politics for a purpose, to bring about change in society, their male colleagues see it as an opportunity to further their business interests; for those hailing from feudal families or business empires, the paltry parliamentary salary is not the enticement, she points out.

Her colleagues marked International Women’s Day two years ago, as Safe Place Day, to sensitise their male counterparts to the issues females face, she said. When a woman politician once brought her sick child to parliament, she was met with derision by the men, but today, the Punjab Assembly runs a daycare, she said.

Kamran also stated, that while women work diligently at the grassroots level, and raise awareness of the needs of the people, when that idea is brought to fruition, the males take the credit; for example, if a school is built the name plaque and recognition will be given to the male colleague.

In her bid to ensure equality, Kamran said she was instrumental in getting two seats for women in the Islamic Ideology Council.

She also believes that taking to the streets in protest is not the answer to resolving issues. Protests disrupt public life, and destabilise the economy, she says, adding that issues must be debated and resolved in parliament.

Addressing the webinar, the Chairwoman of the Committee on Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid, Renata Alt of the German Bundestag, pointed out that women are key players in achieving equality and peace. Yet they are underrepresented and discriminated against. Studies show there is a positive impact on development in countries where there is a higher participation of women in politics, she said.

The CEO of FNF, Annett Witte also addressed the webinar. (Colombo/Mar29/2024)

The Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) recently hosted a hybrid Roundtable Discussion titled ‘Ed-tech Towards Achieving SDGs,’ offering valuable perspectives on the role of Ed-tech in bridging educational gaps and the facilitators and barriers to the expansion of Ed-tech going ahead.

Currently, the primary focus in Ed-tech revolves around adapting to rapidly evolving technologies. There are also concerns that overreliance on technology could widen disparities in accessing quality education. The preceding discussion provides insights into how Ed-tech can be used to address these gaps and overcome barriers, emphasising the importance of regional cooperation and public-private partnerships, and the recent emergence of AI.

Regional Collaboration in Facilitating Ed-tech

A key insight from the discussion was the pivotal role of regional cooperation in accelerating the implementation and adoption of Ed-tech. Ms Cahya Raith from the Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization – Regional Open Learning Center (SEAMOLEC) underscored the role of knowledge sharing, joint research and development efforts, and collaborative capacity-building programmes in advancing Ed-tech in the region.

Similarly, the SEAMEO plays a crucial role in the region’s Ed-tech landscape, fostering innovative practices in Open and Distance Learning (ODL) with a keen eye on integrating metaverse and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. They are also looking at enhancing the capabilities of educators through their regional training programmes which are designed to improve technology integration in the learning process.

The alignment of Southeast Asian countries towards a knowledge-based economy has emerged as a driving force in shaping Ed-tech policies in the region. Ms Ratna Hartine, representing Angel Investment Network Indonesia (ANGIN), noted that Ed-tech policies within the region are more focused on digitising national education data and administration. This includes establishing digital repositories like lectures, ebooks, simulation software and other learning materials, and seeking to expand access to quality education by leveraging mobile learning platforms and by equipping teachers with the required skills through teacher training programmes.

The Role of Public-Private Partnerships

The discussion also shed light on the critical role of public-private partnerships (PPP) in expanding Ed-tech. Mr Asith de Silva, Senior Manager – Social Innovation at Dialog Axiata PLC, discussed how their collaboration with Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Education significantly contributed to the success of ‘the ‘Nenasa’ programme. Nenasa has been delivering educational content for Sri Lankan students since 2009 via a variety of technological means including TV channels and mobile apps, as well as teacher training programmes for teachers in utilising technology in the teaching process.

India’s ‘OLabs’ is another noteworthy PPP in South Asia that makes lab resources readily (anytime) and remotely (anywhere) available to students without access to physical labs or where equipment is not available in their schools due to scarcity or cost. The initiative was pioneered by AmritaCREATE and C-DAC under a research grant from the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology in India, and collaborating and funding support from the public sector has been instrumental in developing such Ed-tech initiatives that support education in schools. Students can access over 170 interactive simulations online anytime, anywhere with OLabs.

Improving Access for Vulnerable Groups

A significant part of the roundtable focused on using Ed-tech to enhance access to education for vulnerable populations. Several Ed-tech initiatives in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region that cater to this purpose include Pakistan’s ‘WonderTree’ initiative for children with disabilities, Indonesia’s ‘BEEP’ for out-of-school children, India’s ‘OLabs’ and ‘Class Saathi’ for rural children and children from underprivileged areas. These initiatives can support to fill shortages of special education teachers. For example, at present in Pakistan there is only one special need therapist for every 230,000 children with special needs. WonderTree in Pakistan has filled some of this gap in education, benefitting around 4000 students with special needs. Recognising its potential, the UNICEF is actively supporting its expansion efforts.

‘‘Currently an assessment could be deployed in about 5 minutes, in class, student responses are instantaneous and so are the results (he doesn’t need to grade them separately). Traditional assessment usually takes 3-4 hours each’’ says an assistant teacher at a Composite School in India who has been using Class Saathi, an Ed-tech initiative which is a Bluetooth clicker-based smart classroom solution that makes formative assessment easy and fast.

Importantly, Mr Georges Boarde, Senior Education Programme Specialist from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in the Near East, highlighted the role played by the UNRWA e-learning platform in improving access to remote learning material and resources for Palestinian refugee students. He also stated how they prioritise enhancing education resilience by improving the preparedness of students and teachers for remote learning and teaching in times of emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing conflict in the region. While the UNRWA is a humanitarian organization that provides its services free to refugees, Mr Boarde highlighted the lack of internal revenue sources as a main barrier to implementing their plans for integrating technology in education, as well as the important role played by donors in facilitating the development of Ed-tech, including its scope and quality.

AI’s Role in Quality Education

The discussion also focused on how AI could help education. Dr Gharbi, CEO of Uptitude, a digital learning company, in Tunisia offered insights on the MENA region’s adoption of AI in education through platforms such as Zenon Academy and AI Mentor which uses gamification and other methods to enhance the learning experience of students. But she also emphasised the varying levels of AI integration across countries, with advanced implementations in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and a growing interest in AI post-pandemic in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria.

To add to that, Ms Hartine highlighted Sekolah metaverse community, a PPP in Indonesia that uses AI, augmented reality (AR), and virtual reality (VR) to substitute learning environments like laboratories in schools that lack resources and funding by creating a community. She also noted how such visual experiences are useful for students who struggle with reading. Other participants from the roundtable further highlighted the role of AI in reducing resource requirements, including personnel, reducing costs, and guiding teachers, among its other uses.

Experts from the government sector, private sector, and donor agencies contributed valuable insights to the roundtable discussion. The event, based on a recent IPS study financed by the Southern Voice and managed by the Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE), provided a comprehensive overview of the Ed-tech landscape and its potential in achieving SDGs.

The new President of the College of Physicians Upul Dissanayake told fellow doctors at his induction in Colombo on Friday that the health sector had failed to recognise diversity and there was widespread discrimination.

The majority of healthcare personnel discriminates against 12 percent of Sri Lanka’s population estimated to be from the LGBTIQ (people who have identified themselves as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex, or questioning), Dissanayake said.

He quoted a 2013 study showing that sexual minorities feared seeking help from psychiatrists or psychologists to discuss the violence they may have faced. And of those who sought assistance, 12 percent had a negative reaction from a doctor.

He also recalled how a motivational speaker hired by the police department as recently as 2021 had told officers that homosexuality was “unnatural” and was a psychiatric issue to be treated and cured.

“The situation has changed during the last few years under the leadership of the Sri Lanka College of Psychiatrists and now a person can expect to see a psychiatrist, with no prejudice against non-heteronormative orientations and genders,” Dissanayake said.

Start with doctors

However, Dissanayake urged fellow doctors to ensure a change of attitude to end discrimination by also educating other health care staff in state and private hospitals.

“As a professional medical organization, we will start among our members, then medical officers, and medical students. We will further go into our co-workers, nursing professionals and other categories of health staff.”

Dissanayake said he was hopeful that proposed legislation to decriminalise homosexuality would be passed by parliament see an end to the colonial-era penal code that had outlawed gay and lesbian behaviour.

Dissanayake was also critical of the treatment of women at hospitals where patients were often examined or subjected to tests such as ECGs without consideration for their privacy.

Language-based discrimination was also rampant, Dissanayake said noting that all doctors wrote diagnosis cards in English which a majority of the patients did not understand.

He said while medical education should be in English doctors must also be sensitive to the patients’ need to know in a language they understood.

Doctors considered their patients “not even as subjects but mere objects.”

“Imagine yourself in the patients’ position. You are there sick, not knowing what ails you, when you would go home, whether you are going to go home at all; the big boss (doctor) does the (ward) round in a strange language (English) which only 23.8% of the population understands.”

“How do we include them in the equation and make our health service inclusive,” he asked.

No solace in hospitals

He said not being a follower of a religion that was the majority religion in the area was a disadvantage for a patient in Sri Lanka.

“In the time of adversity, the patient and the family try to obtain some relief psychologically and spiritually by turning to religion. We have temples, Buddha statues and Bo trees in almost all the hospitals.

“In Hindu majority areas, there are Kovils. In some hospitals there are Christian churches. In a few of them there are some prayer rooms.

“However, the unfortunate patient who is in the minority in such a locality is not thought of. We are not sensitive to the diversity of religion in the populace.”

Patients with HIV or hepatitis B had difficulty in obtaining medical care, mainly from private institutions, he added.

“Who is responsible for this social injustice,” Dissanayake asked. “It is you ladies and gentlemen and I, who are going along with the flow not having the will or the strength to swim against the tide.”

During his tenure, Dissanayake said the College of Physicians will recognise diversity of the population “fight” for inclusivity and equity in the healthcare sector of the country. (Colombo/Jan20/2024)

Creative industries create employment, income, increase export earnings, promote innovation and contribute to societal wellbeing (United Nations Publications, 2002).

The creative industry sector generated USD 2,250 billion in revenues and amounted to 3% of the global GDP in 2015, a study conducted by Ernst & Young and presented jointly by UNESCO and CISAC (the International Confederation of Authors and Composers Society) showed.

The “creative economy” encompasses all industries relying on creative activities and akin to the “knowledge economy” is a key driver of endogenous growth through investment in human capital.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) defines creative industries as cycles of creating, producing and distributing goods and services that use creativity and intellectual capital as primary inputs.

They compromise a set of knowledge-based activities that produce tangible goods and intangible or artistic services with creative content, economic value and market objectives.

Globally, creative economies are a feasible development option in developing economies (United Nations Publications, 2002).

UNCTAD estimates that in 2020, creative goods and services represented 3% to 21% of total merchandise and services exports and it employed more young people than any other industries and accounted for more than 50 million jobs worldwide.

In 2020 main export products in creative goods were design products, new media products, art crafts, visual arts, publishing and performing arts.

In South Asia, India leads in creative goods exports.

Creative Services vastly exceed exports in creative goods but are more difficult to measure.

A White Paper published by the World Economic Forum identified the following factors in enabling a creative economy:
a) Enhancing the local strengths through academic, research and cultural centres to allow ideas and people to mingle.
b) Enabling technological platforms to enable creative ventures to be launched from any location to scale.
c) Inspiring entrepreneurs – highlighting successful individuals to inspire and train other creative entrepreneurs.
d) Governmental regulation and incentives to create the right conditions for creativity to flourish
e) The power of place – making the locality a place people want to live due to location and amenities.

The paper highlights how Chinese governments focus on developing creative clusters including an art zone and creative village with more than 1,000 artists from around the world has led to Beijing becoming a leading creative economy hub in Asia (The World Economic Forum, 2016).

Creative economies recognise and value to interplay between human creativity, ideas, intellectual property, knowledge and technology (United Nations Publications, 2002).

The United National Generation Assembly Resolution 74/198 highlighted that the creative economy is contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in multiple ways, especially in Goal 1(no poverty), 5(gender equality), 8(decent work and economic growth), 9 (industry, innovation and infrastructure), 10 (reduced inequalities), 11 (sustainable cities), 12 (sustainable consumption and production pattern), 15 (peaceful and inclusive societies) and 17 (means of implementation and global partnerships).

As we navigate the narrow and perilous path of economic revival in Sri Lanka in an unstable and uncertain world, thought should be given to whether enough is being done by both the policy makers and private enterprise to foster the creative economy in Sri Lanka.

In this context the work being done by local arts organisations bear special examination.

The author is a patron of the arts. (Colombo/Jan18/2024)

But the wedding would have been special to me even without that connection because of where it was held: a place of unparalleled natural beauty.

‘The Villa,’ in Bentota (town on the southwestern coast of the island about an hour’s drive from capital, Colombo) was originally a grand colonial house. Known as the Mohotti Walauwwa, it was remodelled by renowned Sri Lankan architect Geoffrey Bawa in the 1970s.

The Villa is a place of wide vistas, extensive gardens and beachfront dining facilities. The sea is a short walk away down a sandy, palm-fringed path. Inside, the pastel hued walls are adorned with paintings by local artists.

There were over 120 colleagues and friends who had come from overseas. For most of them, this was the first visit to Sri Lanka. They had come all the way from Australia , UK, US, France, Sweden, Spain, Germany, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Hungary and Brazil.

They had come because they wanted to share the special moment of someone they loved, but all of them, without exception, were overawed by the location. Not only did they feel it was a perfect place for a wedding, they were appreciative of the Sri Lankans they met.

Despite a war for 30 long years, a devastating tsunami, two insurrections and an unprecedented financial crisis, the beauty of Sri Lanka still remains intact.

Sri Lanka is the oldest democracy in Asia and is the only country in the world where people physically fight each other to pay bills when they go out with friends.

Despite the financial crisis this custom still continues. This kind of generosity is extremely rare in the world today. The guests got to see a slice of it during their brief stay and that’s what I felt when talking to Jacob’s father Brad and his uncle, Greg.

Nothing could dampen their spirits, not even the rain which inauspiciously came down just when the bride’s father, Priyantha was delivering his speech out in the garden where the ceremony was being held.

He was able to continue, emotions notwithstanding, because a friend rushed in with an umbrella and held it for him until he was done. One could put it all down to the temper of the moment, the festivities of a wedding and so on, but I like to think that location had something to do with it. It was all about friendship, love, happiness, loyalty and the extraordinary and unique beauty of Sri Lanka.

I returned to Kuala Lumpur the following day. Reflecting on the wedding, the beautiful architecture and the exquisite landscaping, not to mention the innumerable bits and pieces of magic afforded by the lovely beach in Bentota, it occurred to me that what Sri Lanka needs is to develop basic infrastructure to turn all its many scenic locations into iconic stay-in destinations for tourists of all kinds.

Sri Lanka, in short, is a place you would visit to attend a wedding, for example, but will compel you to consider a repeat visit of a longer duration. It is a land that will absorb all sorrows because it is made of smiles that are inevitably infectious. Even in the worst weather conditions.

Indeed, Sri Lanka is an ideal wedding-location. Just imagine a wedding by the sea, a river, a lagoon or a splendid reservoir built hundreds and even thousands of years ago. You could have it up in the mountains overlooking rolling acres of tea, in the middle of a jungle, somewhere steeped in history evidenced by rich archaeological treasures or even in the middle of a cluster of humble villages peopled by those whose dignity derives from a long association with life lessons embedded in Buddhist philosophy. You could time it to coincide with the spectacle of a cultural pageant. Many options. All open-ended. I know that the happy couple would take away memories they would cherish all their lives.

Granting another extension to Inspector-General Wickramaratne appears to be an affront to those appalled by the crime wave gripping the country, but not many know that the police chief has absolutely no disciplinary control over his officers because of the recent bureaucratic layer that has wrested the police chief’s powers.

While it is natural to hold the head of the police responsible for the prevailing pathetic state of law and order, the deepening crisis is a direct result of institutionally subverting the command-and-control structure, the Police Commission.

No Action Against Officers Coming Under Police Commission

“The Police Commission, which was intended to protect officers from politically motivated actions and transfers, may have ended up insulating them from any disciplinary action.”

The setting up of a Police Commission to handle all disciplinary matters and transfers of policemen and women has taken away the authority of the police chief to put such issues into effect himself. In fact, the IGP can only address the Police Commission through the secretary to the ministry of Public Security, a political appointee.

For example, the Presidential Commission of Inquiry into the Easter Sunday attacks recommended disciplinary action against several top officers, including the then intelligence chief Nilantha Jayawardena and Senior Deputy Inspector General (SDIG) Deshabandu Tennakoon, but nothing has been done to-date thanks to the ineffectual Police Commission.

The police chief’s authority extends only to men below the rank of sergeant and two lower-level constables have already been dismissed from the service for failing to prevent the Easter Sunday attacks. But, not a single senior officer has been disciplined to date because of procrastination by the Police Commission.

The same applies to police transfers. While the primary courts, the Attorney General and the police chief himself have called for the arrest/removal of officers such as Deshabandu Tennakoon from the Western province, the Secretary to the ministry of Public Security has blocked action.

Immediate and Comprehensive Reforms

It is clear that the current state of the Sri Lankan Police Department calls for immediate and comprehensive reforms. For a start, empowering the police chief, whether Wickramaratne is retained or not, is a crucial step towards addressing the issues plaguing the department.

In the current hierarchy, the officers directly in line to replace Wickramaratne have serious blemishes that preclude them. The first is current SDIG Nilantha Jayawardena who has been fined by the Supreme Court over his role in the Easter Sunday attacks. Next in line, SDIG Lalith Pathinayake and number three, SDIG Deshabandu Tennakoon have adverse findings against them and the Presidential Commission of Inquiry wanted them disciplined as well as criminally prosecuted.

Sources close to President Wickremesinghe said neither of the three contenders for the top job were considered and hence the extension to low-profile Wickramaratne.

Any change of guard in the leadership, however, may not change the law and order situation in the country given the disciplinary structure following the establishment of the Police Commission. The commission was intended to eliminate political interference and make the department more efficient, but successive commissions have repeatedly revealed their partisanship, which has effectively blocked any decisive action.

Politically Motivated Appointments Continue

The direct interference by the Ministry of Public Security has further compounded the issue. This interference has led to the appointment of politically motivated individuals in charge of police stations, many of whom have proven to be ineffective and ineffectual.

The consequences of this practice were evident after the violence that occurred on June 9, 2022, exposing the inefficiency of officers in charge of maintaining law and order and security.

Yet, there has been no significant shake-up in police leadership within high-crime areas. This lack of accountability not only perpetuates the problem but also raises serious questions about the integrity and effectiveness of law enforcement.

The IGP should be given the authority to lead the 80,000-plus men and women in the force and restore discipline and order. However, this reform must be part of a broader restructuring effort to make the entire police system more transparent, accountable, and responsive to the needs of the public.

The path to reform will be challenging, but it is necessary to restore public confidence and ensure the safety and security of the nation, especially in high-crime areas where drive-by shootings have become a grave concern.

The recent International Monetary Fund governnance diagnostic report went into a number of revenue agencies and suggested an internal affairs unit to probe misconduct of officials. Ironically police support was recommended for key agencies, including the anti-bribery commission.

However no mention was made of problems within the police, or the lack of an effective disciplinary mechanism or internal affairs unit within the police department itself. (COLOMBO/Oct 15/2023)

“By the early 4th Century BCE, this island was primarily a production-distribution portal within the Rim and reached even to the Mediterranean and the Far East,” writes Sudarshan Seneviratne Executive Director General of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) Sri Lanka Secretariat.

“The discovery of large quantities of Mediterranean, East African, South Asian and West Asian imported luxury ceramic ware and beads including coins and foreign notices (from the Mediterranean to the Far East) confirms the status of Sri Lanka as a major trading hub through long-distance trade linked to multiple lands.”

Sudarshana Seneviratne is a former Professor of Archaeology, University of Peradeniya was Director General, Central Cultural Fund.

Legends, chronicles and material evidence place Sri Lanka as a recipient culture located in the center of the Indian Ocean, he says.

The antiquity of this convergence dates to the pre-historic period when people, floral and faunal evidence indicate migration to Sri Lanka from the Indian sub-continent, South East Asia and East Africa.

“The commercial vortex connecting the Indian Ocean Rim had developed a complex system by the Middle Historic period (post 3rd Cent AC),” Seneviratne writes.

“This period witnessed intense commercial activities reaching out to India, South East and Far East and West Asia. There are notices that Buddhist monks and nuns accompanied merchants to their travel destinations.

Monasteries housing Sri Lankan monks were established during 3rd Century AC in Nagarjunakonda (Andhra) and the Gupta period in north India.

The Mahavamsa also records the existence of residences housing foreign merchants.

“The discovery of a Nestorian cross at the citadel of Anuradhapura is a testimony to the presence of West Asian traders residents at Anuradhapura.”

The full article released by Sri Lanka’s foreign Ministry is reproduced below

Sri Lanka and the Indian Ocean in Antiquity

The island of Sri Lanka is also known in history by different names, including Tambapanni, Lanka, Taprobane, Serendib, Ceilo, Ceylon and eventually Sri Lanka or the ‘Resplendent Island”. Legends and historical annals note peopling of Sri Lanka associated with the ocean or those who traversed the ocean arriving at the shores of this island.

It was the Indian Ocean that nurtured the personality of Sri Lanka and shaped its landscape and cultural scape since pre-historic times. It is also the Indian Ocean, which binds us to the larger oceanic scape and the communities of the Indian Ocean rim with a common thread.

The ocean is also the greatest repository that gifted the line of communication and resources. The cultural timeline of our connectivity with the Indian Ocean goes back to pre-4000 BCE. The earliest common term known for this ocean is Samudra, as recited in the Rig Vedic hymns (C.1500 BCE).

It is also known to have a western and eastern ocean. The earliest texts mention oceanic seafaring luxury trade (‘From every side, O Soma, for our profit, pour thou forth four seas filled with a thousand-fold riches.” RV 9.33.6). The ocean craft in Sanskrit Vedic literature is known as Nau (neva in Sinhala). Seafaring provided connectivity to multiple kingdoms, cultures and civilizations that thrived over time and space during the pre-modern period of the Indian Ocean Rim. Sri Lanka was a prime recipient of this Indian oceanic connectivity.

Our relationship with the ocean is an interdependent factor which is mainly due to the centrality of our location in the Indian Ocean and the commonality shared by its resident communities.

Pic 01. Austronesian proto-historic maritime trade network in the Indian Ocean Pre 2000 BCE

Antiquity of Connectivity

Legends, chronicles and material evidence place Sri Lanka as a recipient culture located in the center of the Indian Ocean. The antiquity of this convergence dates to the pre-historic period when people, floral and faunal evidence indicate migration to Sri Lanka from the Indian sub-continent, South East Asia and East Africa.

Pre-historic Austronesian engagement connected east Africa via South Asia and beyond. Legend has it that the pre-historic community, the Naga, were a sea-faring community associated with trade and gems.

In the world of antiquity, Sri Lanka possessed a nautical history involving ships, navigation and seafaring by its island community dating to C. 1000 BCE. By the 4th Century BCE, even before the discovery of the monsoon by Hippalus, Sri Lanka was connected with South East Asia, East India and the Bay of Bengal, trading mainly on precious metals, elephants, spices and pearls. The Bay of Bengal formed a sub-region in the Indian Ocean having its own dynamic in the history of trade and commerce.

By the early 4th Century BCE, this island was primarily a production-distribution portal within the Rim and reached even to the Mediterranean and the Far East. The discovery of large quantities of Mediterranean, East African, South Asian and West Asian imported luxury ceramic ware and beads including coins and foreign notices (from the Mediterranean to the Far East) confirms the status of Sri Lanka as a major trading hub through long-distance trade linked to multiple lands.

Pic 02.

Ptolemy’s Sri Lankan Map created by Claudius Ptolemy in 139 AD. The Greeks called Sri Lanka Taprobana or Taprobane.

Trading portals were located at convenient coastal sites suitable for safe anchorage (dating to the 10th Cent. BCE). In addition to events documented in the Mahavamsa and Jataka narratives, the most accurate and extensive travel catalogues perhaps are found in the cartographic evidence of Ptolemy’s Taprobane and the Periplus Maris Erythraei, a diary of a ship captain travelling between the Red Sea and India. Both mention Sri Lanka as an important travel destination for commerce, its emporiums and traded items including place names of the island.

It is not a coincidence that during the same period (according to notices of Pliny) and the Mahavamsa emissaries of king Bhatikabhaya (1st Cent. AC), the first diplomatic mission (headed by traders), arrived in Rome during the reign of Emperor Claudius Caesar. A second delegation from Sri Lanka arrived in Rome during the time of Emperor Julian (Circa A.D. 375). The latter period coincides with the reign of Mahasena, the age of great agrarian production, the construction of mega reservoirs and monasteries (Jetavana) and the intense expansion of foreign trade with the establishment of cosmopolitan Port Cities.

Pic 03. Emissaries of king Bhatikabhaya (1st Cent. AC) to Rome

The commercial vortex connecting the Indian Ocean Rim had developed a complex system by the Middle Historic period (post 3rd Cent AC). This period witnessed intense commercial activities reaching out to India, South East and Far East and West Asia. There are notices that Buddhist monks and nuns accompanied merchants to their travel destinations. Monasteries housing Sri Lankan monks were established during 3rd Century AC in Nagarjunakonda (Andhra) and the Gupta period in north India.

While the Mahavamsa also records the existence of residences housing foreign merchants.

The discovery of a Nestorian cross at the citadel of Anuradhapura is a testimony to the presence of West Asian traders residents at Anuradhapura.

Pic 04: Site locations in east Africa and South Asia in the Indian Ocean connectivity chain, 1st Cent. BCE

Pic 05: Teppam (outrigger boat)

Connectivity and outreach were possible due to advanced nautical technology dating to the pre-Christian period. It was a qualitative development beyond the outrigger canoe or teppam. The advanced development of this vessel is depicted on coins and inscriptions as single-mast and double-mast vessels that traversed the Bay of Bengal and South Asia.

Interestingly enough, it was also the famous spice and gem trail that connected Sri Lanka with the Arab traders of West Asia. Merchants, from this period and region, made their way to Sri Lanka through three trade routes: the Indian to the North, the traders to the East, and the Arab to the West. It is from this vantage point that we need to understand the movement of communities to Sri Lanka, especially from West Asia in the Middle Historic period.

Today there are big-matches in all parts of Sri Lanka, so many that few can escape them for the spectacle is not contained by the walls of the schools. It not only spills over to the streets but climb over the walls of other schools as well. Well, the girls’ schools at least.

For history and spectacle, however, it can be argued that no match comes even close to the Royal-Thomian encounter. Royal College and St Thomas’ College, Mount Lavinia have played this annual encounter for over 140 consecutive years. That’s including the war years and the period of Covid-19 related lockdowns.

All good fun for the most part. And so, over the years we have come to expect phrases such as ‘Big Match Fever,’ and ‘Mad March Days.’

Today, several decades after leaving St Thomas’ I feel that it’s not a disease; the Big Match, the Battle of the Blues that is, is a healer. There’s nothing ‘mad’ about March; the Big Match provides sanity in a world of routine and grind marked by chaos, uncertainty and drudgery.

For me, like for countless Royalists and Thomians, the Roy-Tho is not only the oldest continuously played cricket series in the world but an extraordinary carnival that adds value to comradeship and friendship.

It’s all about memories, traditions, sportsmanship and life in general. It is a holiday unlike any other.

We walk into the SSC, where the big match has been played for decades except for the last two years when the venue was shifted to Suriyawewa due to containment protocols related to Covid-19, and we are suddenly in this incredible space where we just don’t have to guard our tongues or worry about perceptions being wrecked.

We can be frank, open and basically ourselves without having to think twice before saying or doing anything. It’s not a shut up and sit down event but a get up and speak up one where everyone is equal.

We all have school memories. Among them, those associated with the Royal-Thomian are the most precious. The truth is, as schoolboys we never thought about memories. We just had fun. Incredible fun. Little did we know that we were in fact creating memories that would stay with us and keep us warm when we are battered by the harsh and freezing winds of life.

It’s not just students and old boys. It’s everyone associated with the two schools including teachers, non-teaching staff, parents, friends, girlfriends and others who identify with each School for as simple a reason as living close by!

I still vividly remember the 1990 Big Match. Naresh Adikaram, the Thomian captain, lost his father a few days before the Roy-Tho. He attended the funeral, and a few hours later was at the SSC, leading his boys. He scored over 70 runs in that match. Such courage, such composure! I am sure it was appreciated and applauded by both Thomians and Royalists.

Of course, what happens in the middle of the ground is hardly what makes the Royal-Thomian so special. The carnival, so to speak, unfolds outside, in the stands, among friends, in the back-and-forth of reminiscences by old men whose firm belief they’ve not aged is a product of the amount of alcohol consumed, the papare bands, dancing in the tents, the supporters affirming yet once again that the only tune they can hold is that of the school song, and the occasions pitch-invasion.

It was not uncommon even back then for some of the most colourful personalities of our generation, from Varuna Botejue, Charya De Saram or Prasad Wimalasekara, to spend weeks before the Royal Thomian planning for the event. I remember being aghast, as a senior student, seeing my younger brother Nishantha running into the field, the college flag in hand. He was just about eight years old then.

Such interruptions are expected, cheered or jeered, and looked back upon with a smile that says, ‘we were so much younger then, and we can only be as young again on the three days in March when we attend the Royal Thomian.’

And we graduated from the boys’ tent to the Stallions, the Colts, the Mustangs and other horse-enclosures that don’t have anything to do with age but nevertheless celebrate merry-making to the maximum, such as the Stables, set up by Krishan Perera and his team 19 years ago.

On the Thomian side, I still remember how seriously cricket legends like Michael Tissera and Anura Tennakoon would come and invest so much of their time and energy helping to advise, support and mentor our team. All this while the late Warden Neville De Alwis and Sub Warden former Bishop Duleep De Chickera would be warning the ‘yakos’ such as myself to kindly refrain from assaulting prefects during the match.

It’s a pilgrimage as holy as any other. This is why Royalists and Thomians time their visit to the ‘mother-country’ so that they can go to the Big Match. It’s a temple where there’s community worship of things that matter: friendship, camaraderie and memories that just don’t age.

The Sane March Days are here again. Let the Big Match healing begin!

IPS said COVID-19 has reversed the progress particularly on poverty, inequality, and decent work.

“Financing SDGs has become the biggest challenge for Sri Lanka, becoming even tighter following Sri Lanka’s inability to access international bond markets after the sovereign default in April 2022,” a report by Institute of Policy Studies based in Colombo said.

“Given the enormous challenges to achieving the SDGs, those related to poverty and inequality; food security; economic growth and decent work; health and education; and energy must be prioritised.”

Full statement reproduced below:

Sri Lanka and the SDGs: Impacts of COVID-19 and the Economic Crisis
From IPS’ flagship publication, ‘Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2022’

• COVID-19 reversed Sri Lanka’s progress across several SDGs, particularly on poverty, inequality, and decent work.
• Similarly, the economic crisis is likely to adversely affect the SDG progress and pose several new challenges to their achievement by 2030.
• Financing SDGs has become the biggest challenge for Sri Lanka, becoming even tighter following Sri Lanka’s inability to access international bond markets after the sovereign default in April 2022.
• Given the enormous challenges to achieving the SDGs, those related to poverty and inequality; food security; economic growth and decent work; health and education; and energy must be prioritised.
• Resource mobilisation to secure both traditional and non-traditional SDG financing, including attracting private investments to SDGs, is vital.

Since adopting the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015, successive Sri Lankan governments have taken measures to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. Before COVID-19 struck, Sri Lanka recorded progress across several SDG targets, most notably: ending poverty and hunger (SDGs 1 and 2); improving access to health and education (SDGs 3 and 4); promoting gender equality and decent work, and reducing inequalities (SDGs 5, 8 and 10). The pandemic, however, reversed these advances, particularly on the SDGs related to poverty, inequality, and decent work. Similarly, the economic crisis is likely to adversely affect the SDG progress and pose several new challenges to their achievement by 2030. Against this backdrop, this Policy Insight discusses the impacts of the pandemic and the implications of the current financial crisis on SDGs in Sri Lanka, paying special attention to the SDGs related to poverty and inequality.

Impacts of COVID-19 and the Economic Crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many of the 17 SDGs, with some goals including SDG 1 on poverty backsliding the progress made over the past decade. As with other countries, Sri Lanka also reported notable adverse effects of the pandemic on the lives and livelihoods of its population, especially the poor and the vulnerable. While the pandemic has impacted many SDGs, and all three dimensions of sustainable development – economic, social, and environmental – the adverse effects on some SDGs, especially those related to poverty, food security, health, education and employment are more prominent.

Despite the setbacks during the pandemic (2020-2021), Sri Lanka has improved its overall SDG performance since 2016, as indicated by the SDG Index. As per the Sustainable Development Report 2022, Sri Lanka, with an SDG Index of 70, is ranked 76 among 163 countries. This is close to the overall SDG performance of Malaysia (SDG Index of 70.4) and ahead of countries like the Philippines, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia (see Figure 1). Moreover, the SDG Index for Sri Lanka is only slightly lower than the average for upper-middle countries (71.5%) and considerably higher than the average for lower-middle-income countries (61.8%), as well as the East and South Asian average (65.9%).

Figure 1

However, the progress of individual SDGs indicates major challenges to achieving several SDGs, including SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 3 (health), SDG 6 (water and sanitation), SDG 7 (energy) and SDG 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), despite their moderate performance. Furthermore, SDG 8 on decent work and SDG 5 on gender equity and SDGs 15-17 have been stagnant in their progress, indicating significant challenges to achieve them by 2030. Only a few SDGs, such as those on education (SDG 4) and climate change (SDG 13), are shown to be still on track to achieve the goals on time. Nevertheless, Sri Lanka’s economic crisis will adversely affect the SDG progress and pose several new challenges to their achievement by 2030.

A combination of many factors caused the economic crisis, including the lack of foreign reserves, disruptions to the tourism industry starting from the Easter Sunday attacks in 2019 and the pandemic in 2020, tax cuts that resulted in a significant decline in government revenue and rising crude oil prices partly related to the Russia-Ukraine War and associated sanctions. While the economic crisis has affected the country’s entire population in some way or another, the poor and the ‘near poor’ are the most hit by the crisis. With high inflation, shortage of food and other essentials, and loss of livelihoods, the economic crisis is likely to reverse progress on the SDGs.

Poverty and Inequality
A World Bank study estimates that 500,000 people have fallen into poverty due to the pandemic. This has led to an increase in the USD 3.20 poverty rate from 9.2% in 2019 to 11.7% in 2020, implying a reversal in progress made towards poverty reduction in Sri Lanka since 2016. The study further finds that the extreme poverty level nearly doubled in 2020 from its 2019 levels (from 0.7% to 1.2%), and the poverty gap too has increased, indicating that the poor have become even poorer due to the pandemic. The study stresses the impact on employment such as job losses and a fall in earnings as the main contributory factors to the increased poverty rates.

Further, the World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook for Sri Lanka (2022) estimates poverty levels to have fallen slightly in 2021 from their 2020 level, but the forecast remains above the 2019 level for the next few years. However, the current economic crisis, especially soaring prices of food, fuel and other essential goods, along with adverse impacts on the livelihoods of many workers – particularly, the informal sector workers – means the risks of higher poverty are high. The poverty level can be expected to rise further in 2022, reversing the much-achieved progress in poverty reduction seen over the years.

Financing SDGs is Key Challenge

Financing SDGs has become the biggest challenge for Sri Lanka. On the domestic front, government expenses increased with the pandemic while revenues plummeted, primarily due to tax cuts introduced in 2019. On the external front, foreign income earnings from remittances and tourism dropped. Economic shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine crisis continue to disrupt the global economy, worsening the global macroeconomic climate. Other inflows, such as FDI into the country, have also reduced post-COVID-19 as the economic uncertainties have mounted. Financing has become even tighter following Sri Lanka’s inability to access international bond markets after the selective default of foreign debt payments in April 2022. All these issues have widened the financing gap to achieve SDGs.

Conclusions and Policy Implications

Given the complexity of SDGs and the enormous challenges to achieving them, it is desirable to prioritise the targets that are deemed most important. Prioritisation must be based on the country’s development needs and trade-offs between the targets. Given the enormous financial constraints and adverse implications of the economic crisis, it would be essential to prioritise SDGs related to poverty and inequality (SDG 1 and 10), food security (SDG 2), economic growth and decent work (SDG 8), health (SDG 3) education (SDG 3) and energy (SDG7). While various goal-specific measures are required to accelerate the progress of SDGs, some key steps are:

Securing Financing
Sri Lanka needs to prioritise resource mobilisation for traditional and non-traditional SDG financing.

Traditional SDG Financing: Domestic resource mobilisation is essential if Sri Lanka is to progress on SDGs. Generally, traditional SDG financing includes government financing and ODA from foreign governments. In Sri Lanka’s case, ODA has also been on a declining trend as it moved up the income ladder, while foreign aid now rightly focuses on covering the essential needs of the people first (e.g. food security, social protection, healthcare, power/fuel). In the medium term, however, there needs to be more emphasis on financing other SDGs, especially those related to education, employment, industry, innovation, and infrastructure. Attracting private investment to SDGs, too, will be vital.

Non-traditional SDG Financing: The Roadmap for Sustainable Finance in Sri Lanka, developed by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), highlights some non-traditional instruments in SDG financing. These include green bonds specific to development projects based on environmental protection and climate change. Capital markets have recently become a driving force towards a sustainable future. Sri Lankan companies can explore the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) bonds market. However, green bonds and ESG financing focus on the environment. Sri Lanka needs to expand spending on critical areas such as poverty alleviation (SDG 1), food security (SDG 2) and healthcare (SDG 3). Strengthening multilateral and bilateral partnerships would be crucial, particularly given the lack of fiscal space.

Strengthening Partnerships
Multistakeholder engagement – including government agencies, the private sector, and civil society organisations – is key to achieving SDGs and ensuring an inclusive process. Moreover, enhancing regional and global partnerships to mobilise and share knowledge, expertise, technology, and financial resources is crucial to supporting the achievement of SDGs.

South-South cooperation is also an avenue that needs to be further explored by Sri Lanka. Regional cooperation can help accelerate the progress of several SDGs, in particular, SDGs related to food security (SDG 2), health (SDG 3), energy (SDG 7), decent work (SDG 8) and climate action (SDG 13).

Addressing Data Deficits
While Sri Lanka has made much progress in terms of liaising with the relevant agencies to compile the required data, the lack of more up-to-date data at regular intervals (e.g. annual basis) and lack of disaggregated data (by gender, location, age, etc.) for many SDGs is a significant drawback for monitoring. Given these data gaps, improving the availability of high-quality, timely, reliable, and appropriately disaggregated data for SDGs is important. This requires enhancing the capacity of relevant agencies as well as strengthening partnerships among various stakeholders. There is also some scope for enhancing regional cooperation to improve statistical capacity in Sri Lanka and share knowledge and experience among these countries.

*This Policy Insight is based on the comprehensive chapter “Crises and Recovery: Meeting the 2030 Agenda on SDGs” in the ‘Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2022’ report – the annual flagship publication of the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS). The complete report can be purchased from the Publications Unit of IPS located at 100/20, Independence Avenue, Colombo 07 and leading bookshops island-wide. For more information, contact 011-2143107 / 077-3737717 or email: publications@ips.lk.
To download more POLICY INSIGHTS from IPS, visit: https://www.ips.lk/publications/policy-insights.

Countries that liberalized have seen more overall businesses, including for small and medium businesses they said. Protection and restrictions however may be holding back the potential for Sri Lanka to become a maritime hub going beyond transshipment.

“The only beneficiaries of such policies have been those who hold agencies with the major shipping lines,” Global Shippers’ Forum Chairman and the Chairman of the Apparel Logistics Sub-Committee of the Joint Apparel Association Forum of Sri Lanka (JAAF), Sean Van Dort said in a statement.

“But the harsh economic reality we now face as a nation have made it impossible to justify sacrificing the interest of the nation, and the competitiveness of its exporters, exclusively for the benefit of just a few parties.

“Based on what the President and other key officials have stated in the lead up to Budget 2022 and subsequently, I believe that policy makers are starting to appreciate this fact.

“Throughout Sri Lanka’s post-independence development, every Government has signalled their ambition to transform our nation into a regional maritime hub.

“However with the exception of the bold efforts of the late Hon. Mangala Samaraweera, there has never been a Government that was willing to pursue the liberalization policies necessary to facilitate such a transformation.”

Reaping the benefits of an open, liberalized economy starts with shipping

From a global perspective Sri Lanka’s unwillingness to reform risks eroding the overall competitiveness of its logistics sector as a whole, Shippers’ Academy International Founder, Rohan Masakorala.

“Across Asia, and particularly in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka remains the only country to have maintained protectionist policies for shipping agents,” he said.

“By contrast, acknowledged global leaders in maritime logistics like Singapore and the UAE allow for 100% ownership of shipping and freight forwarding agencies, while countries like Malaysia are over 70% open.

“Most recently, Philippines and Vietnam also announced plans to liberalize their domestic industries, while Europe, the U.S. and even China allow for foreign ship owners to open local offices.

“If we fail to commit to a similar path of reforms, we risk lagging even further in our development, and eventually being left behind altogether Either we reform and adapt or we perish. There are no other choices.”

Opening for foreign investment and ownership, the sector as a whole would be forced to enhance its competitiveness, and eliminate hidden inefficiencies, he said.

It was as mistake to believe that opening will overall reduce opportunities for local businesses, as evidenced by countries like Singapore which has seen an overall growth.

Singaporean logistics sector, was home to 140 global shipping line headquarters, and still has room for over 5,000 local shipping agents.

“Meanwhile, the investments, knowledge and technology transfer infused through foreign ownership would expand the economies of scale across the Sri Lankan logistics sector, creating new niches for smaller players, and making export markets more accessible to Sri Lankan SMEs,” Masakorala said.

Those opposed to liberalization say that the shipping industry is already liberalized except for the “insignificant” business of local shipping agents, which are currently protected from foreign ownership, Maskorala and Van Dort said.

Opponents of liberalization also say opening up domestic shipping agencies to complete or even partial foreign ownership would risk removing domestic participation in this lucrative business, without securing any significant benefits for the nation.

Proponents of liberalization have argued that such policies only protect the interest of local shipping agents, while discouraging global shipping lines from engaging with the domestic market, and blocking private sector foreign direct investment into critical infrastructure.

While both camps have been deadlocked for decades, Sri Lanka’s unprecedented economic crisis and urgent need for foreign currency inflows has re-energized arguments in favour of liberalization the duo said.

In Sri Lanka freigh forwarding is also restricted for foreign investment.

The success of ExpoLanka, in which foreign investment was allowed with a temporary lifting of restrictions demonstrated the potential, Van Dort said.

“Foreign ownership brings numerous extremely valuable benefits, and we need not look further than the success of Expolanka, or any of the other logistics hubs that Sri Lanka is competing against to see the proof,” he said.

“By lifting ownership restrictions, we encourage international ship owners to get engaged and invested in Sri Lanka, and properly utilize our location to link up with their global networks.

“Instead we are currently treated as purely a cost center that feeds regional competitor ports that actively encourage ownership from global shipping lines. The added control that results encourages them to instead treat such ports as profit centers.”

Countries like Singapore and Dubai however have monetary stability allowing for stable economic conditions.

Sri Lanka however has a flexible exchange rate which has led to currency crises, permanent depreciation and social unrest. Instability has worsened after so-called flexible inflation targeting, where an attempt is made to target inflation without a floating exchange rate. (Colombo/Jan04/2022)

Successive governments since Independence was gained in 1948 have been guilty of such misdemeanors, with the post 1977 era, particularly two periods standing out as the darkest; the late 80s when government unleashed its squads to brutally curtail the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna’s terror tactics to disrupt everyday life, in a bid to topple the government, and the 2006 -2015 rule of the Rajapaksa family.

The nearly three-decades long separatist war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) gave governments further excuses to muzzle free expression, touting ‘national security.’

Despite many laws citing national security, there’s no definition of that in Sri Lankan Law. Between 1985 and 1990 was the worst when Indian Peacekeeping Forces were fighting the LTTE in the North and the East and Sri Lankan State forces were battling the JVP led insurrection in the South.

Though a sense of freedom dawned with the election of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government in 2015, it was also the period when ill-informed members of the police distorted the provisions of the newly introduced International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) to harass and arrest citizens and foreigners alike.

And now, under a Ranil Wickremesinghe Presidency it seems those darkest days are back.
Staggering under the burden of an unprecedented economic crisis, with loss of income and shortages of essentials, state repression against those daring to complain or call for change is rearing its ugly head once more.

Many children are going hungry, international, and local agencies have warned. Malnutrition is rampant and a doctor who spoke about it was suspended from service. Several medical professionals were taken to task during the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Presidency for speaking out during the Covid 19 pandemic.

In its global appeal for assistance, the United Nations estimated that these hungry children were nearly 40 percent of population.

The Aragalaya (struggle) which began as a series of peaceful demonstrations by civilians owing to the lack of essentials, coalesced as GotaGoGama on the Galle Face Green in Colombo, forcing the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and his brother Mahinda who was the Prime Minister in July and May respectively. Gotabaya fled the country but has since returned.

The resignations resulted in a short-lived euphoria. Rajapaksa was replaced by Ranil Wickremesinghe as President. A man who many thought was liberal leaning, has flexed his muscles against any form of protests.

Wickremesinghe of the United National Party, who was elected by the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna through the prescribed Constitutional process – a parliamentary vote, declared in November that he will prevent any agitation or protests aimed at toppling the government, and would not hesitate to declare a state of emergency and deploy the military.

It is an egregious attack on the freedom of expression, a Fundamental Right guaranteed in the Constitution. However, the Sri Lankan Statutes contain other laws such as the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) which can severely limit the freedom of expression can be used.

President Wickremesinghe told Parliament that those organising protests may do so with a permit issued by the police. The question, however, is whether the highly politicized police force would grant such permits. As has been witnessed in the past months, the police have turned out in numbers, at times far more than the protestors to halt marches or any other demonstrations.

Wickremesinghe’s statement was met by stiff resistance by opposition political parties and civil society groups. They pointed out that his statement violates Fundamental Rights. As Ajith Perera, a Lawyer and former Member of Parliament pointed out, the “President can’t do that as he is shackled by the Constitution.” It is a truism.

On many an occasion the Supreme Court has upheld the freedom of expression including the right to protest as a constitutionally guaranteed right.

Despite President Wickremesinghe’s statement protests continue. Two women, walking from Panadura to Colombo demanding the release of two youth leaders of the aragalaya were arrested mid-way. On being released sometime later, they defiantly completed their walk to Galle Face Green.

The two individuals’ activists want released are University Student leaders Galwewa Siridhamma Thero and Wasantha Mudalige. Arrested under the draconian PTA under which the authorities have the right to hold anyone indefinitely without trial, the Act has been severely criticized by local and international Human Rights communities.

As internationally renowned expert on free expression, Dr Gehan Gunatilleke states, the PTA as a law, has not had any effect on the suppression of terrorism. Rather, in an interview with Kusum Wijetilleke on the Insight Program, he described the PTA as “an instrument of repression.” He pointed out that those arrested under the Act are “not major terrorist leaders or involved in plots, but people who are peripherally involved with a militant group or in the wrong identity group.”

This time that identity group is the youth activists who did the impossible – toppling a President feared by many as a ‘terminator.’

Aragalaya activists are not the only targets. Journalists and civil society activists are repeatedly hauled before the courts or the Criminal Investigation Department for questioning or daring to oppose government intimidation. The two main political parties, the United National Party, and the Sri Lanka Freedom party, most of which has now morphed into the Podujana Peramuna are guilty of this behaviour, where presses and media offices have been attacked and journalists arrested.

Independent media practitioners such as Tharindu Jayawardena and members of the Young Journalists Association, a group that has emerged as fearless and determined are constantly harassed and interrogated by the police, in attempts to intimidate them.

Journalists and independent commentators have for the longest time been easy targets. If during the ethnic conflict and insurgencies national security was the excuse, at other times it has been to silence those exposing irregularities and government corruption, particularly in military procurements.

The period when the country was battered fighting the LTTE on the one side and the JVP insurrection on the other was one of the most horrific; Journalists and high-profile media persons such as Premakirthi de Alwis and Richard de Zoysa were murdered. The police were involved in de Zoysa’s abduction and murder and the JVP was blamed for de Alwis’s execution by unknown gunmen.

There were many other media personalities, including the assassinations of then Chairman of the Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation Thevis Guruge and Consultant Editor, Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation Kulasiri Amaratunge.

During the decade-long Rajapaksa administration when Mahinda was President and Gotabaya Defense Secretary, Sri Lanka’s freedom of expression regressed at an alarming rate.

Newspaper offices in the North, particularly the Uthayan newspaper were attacked by unknown gunmen. In 2009 the studio complex of Newsfirst at the time situated in Depanama was attacked by paramilitaries armed with assault rifles and claymore bombs.

Two days later the world was shaken by the brutal daytime murder of outspoken Editor of the Sunday Leader newspaper Lasantha Wickrematunge. His assassination was preceded by multiple attacks beginning in 1995 on him, his family and staff and the burning down of the press.

The attacks on journalists working for that newspaper continued even after his killing. To this day no-one has been punished for his death.

Many Tamil language journalists threatened by both the LTTE and government forces were forced to flee the country or face assaults and even death.

Even as members of the Defense establishment and politicians hurled verbal attacks against journalists and media houses aligned with government joined in the false naming of their colleagues as being terrorists, a senior columnist J S Tissainayagam was arrested by the Terrorist Investigation Department, resulting in a verdict of hard labour. Tissainayagam was released due to international pressure.

Assaults and abductions followed, most notable being those of Deputy Editor of the Nation, Keith Noyahr, Acting Manager, Advocacy of the Press Institute, Namal Perera and Poddala Jayantha of the Working Journalists Association. Just prior to that, Poddala and colleague Sanath Balasooriya were hauled up before Gotabaya Rajapaksa and threatened.

To date, not a single attacker has been charged although the Army’s clandestine “Tripoli Platoon” has been investigated and that case is yet to go to trial. The United States officially sanctioned Prabhath Bulathwatte, head of that feared outfit in December 2022. The US sanctions were centered on the attack on Noyahr.

State media often plays the part of a neutral provider of news and opinions in many democratic countries, the UK’s BBC, Canada’s CBC and PBS and NPR in the United States for instance. Not so in Sri Lanka, where, ever since the takeover of Lake House during the Sirimavo Bandaranaike rule, state media institutions, SLRC, ITN and the SLBC have become government mouthpieces.

Public Law expert Dr Asanga Welikala wrote on the Groundsviews that the “reform of the state-owned or controlled media institutions had been on the agenda for years, before the Rajapaksa regime not merely stalled reform, but recreated these institutions in ways that would put Stalin’s agitprop commissars to shame.”

The issuing of licenses to private media both radio and TV has remains opaque with spectrum offered to politically powerful business groups, despite calls by media rights group to make the process transparent. That most of these media houses too are in lockstep with administrations touting conspiracy theories and falsehoods means, independent journalism in Sri Lanka is hard to come by.

Indeed, media houses that have left professionalism at the door must be held responsible for the bankrupt state the country is now in. Throwing caution to the winds, bent on achieving the agendas of their political masters, they repeatedly mislead their audiences.

In recent years it has been the deliberate falsehoods concerning the Muslim population; allegations the minority is attempting to render the Sinhala race infertile, and accusing an Obstetrician in the Kurunegala Hospital, Dr Mohamed Shafi of sterilizing Sinhala Buddhist women patients is a case in point. Dr Shafi has since been exonerated.

During the Covid 19 pandemic, with no regard for privacy issues, these media stations attempted to portray the Muslim community as the cause for the spread of the virus, and supported the governments forced cremation of the Covid dead. It is these same agencies that also promoted untested herbal remedies and occult practices as a cure for the virus.

In the run up to both the Presidential election in 2019 and Parliamentary elections of 2020 the Chairman of the Elections Commission came up with various excuses as to why the Commission could not hold these errant private media houses accountable.

The antidote to these narratives has been the relatively recent proliferation of media entities operating entirely on social media platforms particularly Facebook (meta), YouTube and Twitter.

The aragalaya also opened opportunities for dramatists and artists to highlight social issues. For decades, those such as Professor Chandragupta Thenuwara have been depicting through their art, violence perpetrated against citizens and the militarization of society.

The aragalaya undoubtedly resulted in a flowering of these talents where peaceful and creative methods became expressions of dissent. Christian Clergy, Buddhist Monks and civil society joined Muslims as they broke fast during Ramadan.

Protestors created murals and paintings depicting women in various ethnic attire that united the disparate communities kept apart by the noxious propaganda of nationalist politicians. Street theatre and open-ended discussions on reform took center stage.

Dr Sanjana Hattotuwa a Research Fellow at the Disinfo Project in New Zealand observes that the protest allowed artistes from around the country to “articulate a critique of the (Rajapaksa) family through artistic production.”

The World Bank in its October development report on Sri Lanka said the poverty rate in Sri Lanka has doubled in the past year, going from 13.1 to 25.6 percent, increasing the number of poor by 2.7 million.

“While 80 percent of the poor still live in rural areas, the poverty rate in urban areas has tripled from 5 to 15 percent between 2021 and 2022, and half the population in estate (Plantations) areas is now living below the poverty line,” it said.

Field Marshal (Retd) Sarath Fonseka, a former Army Commander and current Opposition Member of Parliament told his fellow legislators in November that the aragalaya aims to remove the corrupt political class in Sri Lanka.

“In fact, that is the true aim of the struggle,” he said. “If the President falls into that class, then he should go too.” He warned Parliament that although the protests are not visible right now “the desire of the people to eradicate corruption is like glowing embers under the ashes.”

Those are the voices at the bottom of the barrel, ones that must be heard. Freedom of expression has come under attack continuously by the State and affiliated parties, and the Wickremesinghe Presidency seems determined to take it to a new level.

But the Aragalaya has reignited the lamp, that many activists have been carrying for years, while facing vicious assaults and censure.

The carefully thought out program deals with a number of fiscal problems including state enterprises and budgets in detail.

It is also deals with trade and industry.

However the program is also advocating the adoption of a new draft Monetary Law, which in the early copies in circulation institutionalizes discretionary policy (flexible inflation targeting/dual anchor conflicts) that triggered serial currency crises and eventually drove the country into default.

Sri Lanka has been hit by inflation and forex shortages, accompanied by trade and exchange controls undermining economic freedoms and de-stabilzing the economy after an intermediate regime central bank was set up in 1950 with both monetary and exchange rate policies which conflict with each other.

For true inflation targeting (a rule to control the expansion of money supply) to operate the central bank has to stop intervening in forex markets or in other words have no foreign exchange policy.

For inflation targeting to work the currency has to float and the central bank should only have a monetary policy (open market operations) impacting reserve money with a single target (inflation) generally known as a domestic anchor.

Targeting the exchange rate to collect reserves or for any other objective, changes reserve money through foreign exchange operations, tying the money supply tightly or loosely to the balance of payments through pegging, depending on the degree of interventions.

A central bank, having a distinct foreign exchange policy (intervening in the market) will operate a pegged regime which will conflict with its monetary policy. Forex shortages can emerge whenever domestic credit picks up and attempts are made to push down rates with monetary policy.

In 2018 a currency crisis were triggered by open market operations despite the deficit being brought down, fuel being market priced, with the central bank independence given by Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera, critics have shown.

A so-called ‘flexible exchange rate’ or non-credible peg operated by a reserve collecting pegged central bank is therefore prone to currency crises, and IMF bailouts, regardless of how good the fiscal policy is.

Then Governor A Jayewardene removed exchange rate policy from the central bank’s main objectives on the path to inflation targeting, by dropping the requirement to maintain the ‘external value’ of the rupee.

According to at least one draft in circulation, the course is reversed with a specific exchange rate policy being to be given legal effect and ensuring that there is no solution to the dual anchor conflicts that has created balance of payments trouble in Sri Lanka since 1950.

Article 7 (1) (a) of the draft law is to “determine and implement monetary policy”

Article 7 (1)(b) is to “determine and implement exchange rate policy”

Article 7 (1) (c) is to “hold and manage official international reserves of Sri Lanka”

Sri Lanka country’s current forex shortages with a 360 to the US dollar peg and fuel shortages are characteristic results of a pegged regime (non-floating ‘flexible’ exchange rate) having both a monetary and exchange rate policy.

The debt office

There are further problems with the draft, creating conflicts of interest.

Article 7 (1) (j) is to act as financial advisor and fiscal agent of, and Banker to, the government.

The common minimum program however has advocated a separate debt office, in a big improvement.

In order to operate a floating exchange rate the Treasury or debt office should also be able to buy foreign exchange to settle loans and manages its dollar balances.

In order to eliminate currency crises (and allow the debt office to buy dollars for rupees) the central bank has to either abandon foreign reserve collections (clean float the currency), or abandon monetary policy to artificially push down interest rates and run a credible peg or currency board.

The draft law as it stands allows policies similar to the past 70s years to be carried out by giving legal effect to even more discretionary policy involving an unstable peg with conflicting anchors (both monetary and exchange rate policies).

Under an IMF program, where a loan given to boost reserves of the central bank, a true inflation targeting framework cannot be implemented at least until the program ends and the reserve loan is repaid, or the debt is taken over by the government.

This is why countries that go the IMF continue to operate unstable pegs and get into trouble in the next credit cycle or usually the one after.

Common Minimum Program for Economic Recovery

Compiled by the National Movement for Social Justice
4 June 2022

We are in the throes of an unprecedented crisis. No useful comparisons may be drawn from the 2001-02 period of negative economic growth. The only analogue may be from 90 years ago, when per capita GDP collapsed from USD 80 to 33 in a few years as part of the Sri Lankan manifestation of the Great Depression.

Sri Lanka has the highest income inequality in South Asia (between China and the US in international comparisons) and provided little compensation for the harms caused by the pandemic and lockdowns. Our citizens in the lower deciles are unable to withstand more shocks. It will not be possible to get out of this crisis without any pain. But the pain can be minimized, especially for the most vulnerable, by a well thought out recovery program.

We should not abandon the commitments to fiscal discipline on the first possible occasion, as was the case in the past. We must be steadfastin our commitment to these reforms because they are our decisions and because this is the only way recurrences can be avoided.

Political actors may be unwilling to accept working within the framework of an IMF program because of the fear of being made responsible for the difficult, but necessary, reforms. That is why it is necessary tocommitto a common minimum program which provides a meaningful role to all participating parties and is anchored in Parliament’s Constitutional responsibility for the control of finances.

How the document was developed

By mid-2021, the National Movement for Social Justicerecognized the necessity of developing a national consensus on measures to get out of the crisis and to avoid recurrences. In keeping with its practice of drawing on expertise to develop policy positions, a series of “kathikawa” webinars were organizedstarting in July 2021. Subsequently, a draft of a common minimum program in all three languages was published in February 2022 for further discussion in the media and otherwise.

Around the same time, various organizations, including political parties, associations and think tanks, published recommendations. In the past few months many were published making it difficult to ensure comprehensive coverage. Economic recommendations that could be implemented within a short time frame were selected from an ideologically broad set of documents and were analyzed (annex 1). Significant agreement was found on topics such as the need for control of government expenditure and the establishment of an efficient and well-targeted social safety net. On issues such as trade and state assets, there were divergences. The results of the comparative analysis were presented to a group of economists (annex 2) who suggested changes in substance and prioritization. The revised recommendations were presented to a panel of business leaders (annex 3) for validation. Changes were made throughout. The final document differs significantly from the base document.

Proposals

The proposals are organized under eight headings that were identified in the course of the analysis and validation. With each of the specific recommendations, the economists were asked to identify the relevant time frame for action: short-term (within 2022); medium-term (by end of 2023); and longer-term (completion after 2023). The time frames are provided as starting points for discussion only.

1. Macroeconomic stability

Given that the economic team is in place, the selection of advisors has been completed, and discussions with the IMF are ongoing, the proposals below look beyond these ongoing activities that are seen as being in good hands. Many of the base documents had been prepared before the above activities commenced. The recommendations that had been implemented by the time of the finalization of this document have been excluded.

It is recommended that priority be given to the Monetary Law Act (which exists in draft form), which will ensure the independence of the Central Bank, which is seen as essential for macro-economic stabilization. Attention is also focused on ensuring that data on public debt are accurate at all times and that a professional approach is adopted for the management of different forms of debt and guarantees. The proposed Public Debt Office should be an elite organization staffed by highly qualified and experienced professionals. It was felt that providing adequate compensation packages for such professionals would be a challenge unless the Office was located within the Central Bank. However, concerns were expressed about whether the placement of the Public Debt Office within the Central Bank would detract from the central objectives of the Bank.

2. Revenue consolidation

It is almost certain that the entering into an IMF program will require a commitment to a time-bound achievement of a primary surplus. This will require the raising of revenue above the current levels. Irrespective of the IMF, this is a laudable objective. Action to restore the tax regime that existed prior to December 2019 has already been initiated. Therefore, the proposals below look beyond the restoration of the 2019 revenue measures.

It is necessary to increase non-tax revenues by increasing the fees charged for services and revenues from state assets. However, it would be good if attention is paid at the same time to reducing the costs of collecting the revenue and improving the services provided. For example, paperwork can be simplified, and the frequency of collection can be adjusted. There is likely to be less resistance if service quality is improved when fees are increased. In some instances, the collected fees go into funds under the control of the responsible agencies. It is important that any funds more than what is required for operations be remitted to the Consolidated Fund.

There are many negatives to the practice of handing out tax exemptions to investors. Exemptions under the Strategic Development Projects (SDP) Act No. 14 of 2008, should be discontinued. Even those who currently enjoy SDP status should be subject to a minimum alternative tax, proposed as 15 percent. Sri Lanka should join the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Framework. A progressive corporate tax regime, without sharp discontinuities, is recommended.

Customs reforms including changes to customs officers’ reward schemes are recommended. The complex duty structures should be replaced with a three-band scheme and para tariffs should be phased out.

The significant weaknesses in Sri Lanka’s revenue administration should be addressed. Though challenging, a unified revenue administration that would bring together inland revenue, customs and excise is an urgent necessity.

3. Primary expenditure control

The need to ensure that the provisions of the Fiscal Management (Responsibility) Act, No. 3 of 2002, are scrupulously followed was highlighted. Given the disappointing track record since enactment, opinion was split on the relative importance of strengthening the Act versus ensuring a culture of compliance. In the end, there was support for the amendments on the basis that compliance may be looked after by the engaged oversight provided by newly energized citizens.

Concern about large debt-financed projects lacking in feasibility is reflected in the proposal to mandate projects that are in line with the National Physical Plan and have been assessed as meeting all stated criteria. The entity responsible for the Physical Plan should be situated in an appropriate Ministry and must be adequately funded and empowered to ensure compliance.

4. Public sector and SOE management

A freeze on public-sector recruitment is strongly recommended, with all vacancies being filled with those already in state service (green sheeting). Defence expenditures are still the highest a decade after the end of the war and most of it is in the form of recurrent expenditures, with inadequate provision being made for force modernization. A serious effort is recommended to realign and reduce defence expenditures.

The actual personnel requirements of the state, of the armed forces, and SOEs must be calculated, and surplus personnel redeployed. The state must make major investments to upgrade the capacity of personnelin the public service, starting with the leadership layer. To assure productive performance, they must be provided with the necessary facilities. This should not be limited to tangible things such as computers, but must include proper performance reviews, the formulation of customized training plans and the provision of necessary resources for training, etc. Professor Mick Moore, a long-time observer of the Sri Lankan state, has documented the decline of the resources spent on making state employees more productive at the same time as the numbers of employees have been going up.

The privatization of at least one high-profile SOE such as SriLankanAirlines, as already announced, will communicate seriousness of purpose both to debt holders and to the various interest groups. A task force should be established to review all state corporations and state-owned companies andprioritize those to be divested, reorganized as PPPs, or subjected to management reforms. Markets where SOEs operate as monopolies or as protected suppliers should be liberalized.

It is proposed that all SOEs be converted into companies which will ringfence assets and liabilities, improveadherence to accounting standards,and allow for the floating of shares in the CSE under appropriate conditions. It is also proposed that procedures like the “fit and proper test” used for bank boards be established to ensure that persons appointed to the boards of SOEs can perform their duties.

Hard budget constraints should be imposed on SOEsengaged in commercial activities. State banks should be instructed to apply normal risk assessment criteria when lending to SOEs.

5. Social safety net

The Welfare Benefits Board Act became law in 2002, but it is yet to be implemented. It is recommended that the board be activated, the databases completed, and a social safety net be implemented immediately. Because of the similarities of the present situation with disaster and because surveys show that 77 percent of households that receive regular benefits from the government have access to bank accounts, it is recommended that cash transfers to bank accounts of mobile money accounts be used, with improvements to targeting being made over time.

6. Energy and public utilities

Refined and unrefined petroleum products account for around 15 percent of the country’s total merchandise import bill (it may be even higher in 2022).Formula-based pricing for imported fuel, which was recommended in multiple documents, has been implemented, though the actual formula and the periodicity remain opaque. It is recommended that these elements be addressed.

Because fuel is a key input for the production of electricity, which in turn is a significant input for the production of piped water, it will be necessary to extend formula-based pricing to these utility services as well. It appears that distributors of cooking gas are adjusting retail prices to reflect the cost of imports and the value of the rupee. It is recommended that all petroleum products, including cooking gas, be brought under utility regulation through a sector specific law, and price and quality regulation be entrusted to the Public Utilities Commission.

Because over 60 percent of fuel imported into the country is spent on transportation, it will not be possible to address the current account deficit and the volatility caused by world markets unless concerted action is taken to shift more passengers to efficient modes of transport. This will require a shift to a public transport first policy and the removal of various forms of subsidies currently in place for private transport. The investments required for this shift may have to be obtained from external sources.

Load shedding has many negative implications for the economy. To ensure regular power supplies for industry and for consumers, it is necessary to increase the amount of electricity generated from the abundant potential that exists for wind and solar. To take power from these intermittent sources and to remove the cause of periodic country-wide failures, additional investments are necessary to upgrade the transmission grid. The transmission network is currently operated under a separate license, but not as a ring-fenced and independently operating entity. Making it an independently operating entity will be necessary for the required investments to be made and procurements completed in a timely manner and for services such as wheeling to be introduced.

After the divestment of SriLankan Airlines has been completed, it will be necessary to attract airlines, especially low-cost carriers, to Sri Lankan airports. Mattala has been fully liberalized. It will be necessary to consider liberalization at least up to fifth freedom level at Colombo. The rights to provide ground handling services should not be bundled with the airline as part of the divestment. Separate and focused efforts should be made to improve the management of the airport including the lowering of currently non-competitive ground handling service fees and non-discriminatory treatment of all airlines using the airport.

7. Trade and industry

The committees established under the National Export Strategy of 2018 should be used to identify difficulties experienced by exporters. With the relevant state officials present at these meetings, quick action can be taken to remove the barriers to exports. It is likely that barriers include permits for imports of critical inputs and bank-related difficulties will feature large. The permit raj that has been established in the past few years has to be disassembled if exports are to be promoted. The necessity of imports for exports will have to be impressed.

The crisis and the accompanying failure of basic infrastructure services has brought industrial zones back into discussion. Unlike in the 1980s, it would be useful to allow privately managed industrial zones, where the operators will be responsible both for the investments and the recruitment of tenants.

8. Specialized legislation critical to recovery

It is expected that a large number of enterprises will fail and that hundreds of thousands if not more employees will be thrown out of work as a result of the crisis. Extant legislation is not capable of effectively responding to these unprecedented events. Unless new bankruptcy laws that are applicable to all enterprises are enacted quickly, the recovery will take long. In the same way, unless a more realistic mechanism than Termination of Employment of Workman Act (TEWA) for handling employees who lose their jobs as a result of the crisis is set in place, enterprises will not be able to survive.

Intervention 8 Time horizon

Fast track unified bankruptcy laws for all enterprises S
Replace TEWA with Unemployment Insurance Fund S

Bangladesh came into being in 1972, and then US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger saw no future for the country, describing it as “a bottomless basket case.”

His comments were coloured by the fact that the US was at the time, a close ally of Pakistan and opposed to the creation of Bangladesh.

Kissinger’s description was not far off the mark, as Bangladesh was indeed at the bottom of the pile. With a per capita income of scarcely USD90, it was grouped with other impoverished countries of the world such as Chad, Rwanda, Burundi, and Nepal.

Today,50 years later its per capita income has crossed the USD2000 mark with a GDP of about USD355 billion. Poverty rates have plunged from nearly 43 percent in 1991 to 14 percent last year. Economists predict that it will “graduate” out of the Least Developed Country (LDC) status by 2026.

The remarkable success of this South Asian nation and its future course was discussed at a webinar on April 7 organised by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom South Asia (FNF).

As Dr. Christoff Hoffman, member of the German Federal Parliament observed, Bangladesh’s success rests on the fact that the country’s government has acted more as a facilitator for the economy, rather than a regulator.

Yet, that success may well be a problem in the future, as the country could lose some of the special tariff rates currently available, as national income grows. “The country will have to compete with many other countries” to hold on to markets.Bangladesh is the second largest exporter of readymade garments in the world.

Apart from garment exports, Bangladesh’s other source of foreign exchange is remittances of their migrant workforce.

Moderator of the webinar, Dr. Najmul Hossain, an economist and FNF’s Country Representative, Bangladesh categorizes the remittance income as an Export. “We need to diversify these sources of income,” he told the webinar.

While the country earns around USD40 billion per year through garment exports, foreign remittances make up more than USD20 billion annually.

The country’s economic boom began in the 1990s explains panelist Dr. Zaidi Sattar, Founding Chair, Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh and Member of the Bangladesh Economic Association. That happened when the country looked outwards for markets, instead of focusing on inward growth, he said.
There was significant economic liberalization including making the local currency, the Taka convertible.

“We were industrializing, but it was more about import substitution,” Dr Sattar added. “Once we started looking outwards, looking for markets for our products, then the economy started to boom,” he told the webinar, adding “We had protected our industries for too long.”

Panelists agreed that democratically elected governments had fared far better liberalizing trade
regimes than authoritarian governments that ruled the country from time to time.

Dr.Sattar pointed out that Bangladesh has maintained a high degree of macroeconomic stability. “Our fiscal deficits have always been less that five percent of the GDP,” he said.

He added, however that other exports do not fare as well as the garment industry, as those do not enjoy the same tax breaks; while the apparel industry imports its raw materials duty free, an import tax is levied on products brought in by other industries. This “export policy dualism” must end he said, adding that the country must further liberalize the tax regime, so other industries too could grow, Dr. Sattar said.

He called on the government to seek free trade agreements with countries which are big markets and lower import tariffs.

He also added that “Bangladesh needs to get into the component industries like Vietnam.”

Most of the global trade is into manufacturing various components for machinery, and that is an area the country should venture into, he stated as it is a field that would suit the high proportion of young people entering the workforce.

The country’s widespread Non-Governmental Organisations have also contributed to the economic success. As Tarikul Ghani, Advisor, Manabik Shahajya Sangastha stated,NGOs have played a vital role in reducing extreme poverty amongst the people.

NGO interventions have seen an increase in primary school enrollment and an improvement in the status of mothers’ health. He stated that around 34 percent of foreign aid received is channeled to Bangladeshi NGOs.

“Institutions such as Grameen Bank have helped poor communities to borrow funds to start enterprises,” he said. Ghani is an internationally known activist for clean elections and pioneered election monitoring in Bangladesh.

The webinar included a documentary tracing the country’s economic development. Chief Economist of the UNDP Bangladesh, Dr. Nazneen Ahamed, the narrator stated that despite the positive interventions by the government to increase school attendance amongst girls, “only 36 percent of women are in the workforce while more than 80 percent of men are in the workforce.”

If more women are to be encouraged to enter the workforce, more women-friendly infrastructure and women-friendly transport must be introduced, she observed.

Dr Ahamed credited the government’s Female Secondary Stipend Programme (FSSP) for the increase in the number of girls graduating from Secondary schools and delaying marriage.

The programme provides girls attending Secondary School, an allowance for uniforms, school fees and to meet other expensed.

Nearly two million girls are supported by this programme. According to a World Bank report, female adult literacy which was at 26percent in the 1999s, when the programme was launched, has seen a significant increase, standing at 72percent, currently. It has also helped reduce the number of child marriages.

Economic improvement has also facilitated a momentous transformation of Bangladeshi society. Financial success has given rise to a growing pool of entrepreneurs, positively impacting the lives of both urban and rural communities. A shift towards digitisation has further added to the success.

Indeed, both public and private sectors have contributed to Bangladesh’s success story; a template that developing nations must emulate, the webinar heard.

The nation is angry. It has stomached months of deprivation of the very basics of life, food, fuel,electricity, and medicine. Even as doctors appeal for medical supplies, the head of the government information department releases a statement to the contrary. That is the hallmark of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government, contradictions.

At least seven people, mostly older men have died while standing in the queues to purchase cooking gas or fuel.

The people now roundly blame the government dominated by the Rajapaksa family for the mess. The rulers ignored warnings made by economists over a year ago that the country’s finances were on a downward path.

Last year the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) urged the government to approach the International Monetary Fund for relief. But theirsuggestionswere ignored.Government MPs including Minister Vasudeva Nanayakkara ridiculed the suggestion.

Now the country is bankrupt, and unable to pay its debts has been compelled to seek IMF assistance.
One thing is clear, the Rajapaksas would never have dreamt their adoring fans would turn against them.

Yet, Gotabaya, Mahinda and the entire family were being mocked by the public, long before the street protests began.The government which believed it had a firm grip of the populace, have never been so wrong.

The government declared an Emergency and then enforced a curfew in a bid to stop the protest planned for April 3rd by civil society actors. But a defiant public cared not about possible arrests; be it gathering at Galle Face, Independence Square, at main intersections or simply outside their own homes, the people came out, demanding that President Gotabaya step down.

Never have ordinary residents defied a government order in this manner, in the history of the country.
It was the first sign that the administration had failed. Former Member of Parliament and architect of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution Dr Jayampathy Wickramaratne calls it a “huge defeat for the government.” #GotaGoHome has now coalesced a nationwide protest movement which is centered at the Galle Face Green opposite the President’s office.

The youth-led movementappears not to be affiliated to any political partybutorganized by local groups. Civil Society organisations which have been agitating that Sri Lanka improves its human rights record are supportive.

The situation has also given opposition political parties an impetus to further their agendas.

Dr Wickramaratne says the “battle cry” Gota Go Home does not merely call for the resignation of the President. Instead, he told Economynextthe protest “contains the demand that all the Rajapaksa’s resign and not be involved in governance. It also is a demand to end authoritarian government.”

Eventually the end of the crisis will have to be played out through the 225 member Parliament.The August 2020parliamentary election saw 145 members of the Sri Lanka PodujanaPeramuna (SLPP) being elected. They won over several other MPs of minor parties to have the 20th Amendment, which gives the President extraordinary powers, passed.

Earlier this month as protests grew 42 MPs left the SLPP and sat as Independents, although one of them has already crossed back to the government ranks, lured by a Ministerial position.

The Opposition has the ball rolling in this regard.On April 13, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa signed two motions that his party will place before Parliament. One is a motion to impeach President Rajapaksa and the other is a Motion of No Confidence in the government.

While the No Confidence Motion needs only a simple majority to pass in Parliament, impeaching the President is no easy game. According to the Constitution to table an impeachment the Opposition will require half or one-third of the MPs signing it, plus the agreement of the Speaker of the House.

Two thirds of the MPs must support the impeachment for it to be sent to the Supreme Court for inquiry.
Even if the top court finds the President guilty, the Chief Executive can be removed only if that decision is supported by a two-thirds majority in Parliament.

This is so even if the SC finds the President mentally incapacitated. As it stands today, the No Confidence Motion may carry, but an impeachment may not carry through unless there are more defections from the ruling party.

Dr Wickramaratne says that there are “mixed signals emanating from the dissident group….and there is a likelihood of more defections.” The main opposition SJB has been having conversations with the dissidents They are from both the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and other smaller groups. Dr Wickramaratne believes that more defections will take place only when the dissidents are sure that the No Confidence will pass. “If the No Confidence Motion is defeated then it will be a boost for the Rajapaksas,” he added.

Ironically, the only President to face an impeachment in Sri Lanka’s history was Ranasinghe Premadasa, the father of the current Leader of the Opposition. That impeachment motion brought in 1991, was controversially disallowed by the then Speaker M H Mohamed on technical grounds.

The country’s governance is locked in the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, passed by the current Parliament after the SLPP won the Presidential Polls two years ago. It gives President Rajapaksa unprecedented powers, the reasonwhy the protestors hold him solely responsible for the sorry state of the nation’s affairs.

To meet the demands of the growing protest movement it is necessary to reduce the power of the Presidency, and that would mean a 21st Amendment to the Constitution. Dr Wickramaratne, admits that one of the major flaws of the 19th Amendment, was that the powers of the President and Prime Minister were not clearly demarcated. That led to tensions between then President Maithripala Sirisena and the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, resulting in a dysfunctional government.

“Our original intention was to make the Prime Minister the Executive and ensure that the President as head of state acted on the advice of the PM. But one of the coalition partners, the Jathika Hela Urumaya opposed that idea, and as a result we could not go ahead,” he told Economynext.

With the popularity of the government tanking, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, the most charismatic and once popular member of the family addressed the nation on April 12 but offered nothing, not even commiserations.All he said was “we feel your pain.”He, like his brother the President, did not accept responsibility for the current mess.

Instead, he told the nation that the loss of foreign currency was caused by the Covid pandemic. He chose to remind the people that he won the separatist warand toldprotestors that their actions prevent tourists visiting Sri Lanka.

In a thinly veiled warning, he reminded Sri Lankans of the late 1980swhen the insurrection of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna resulted in the loss of thousands of lives, victims of both government and rebel forces. He said he hoped the parents of the protesting youth remembered how the bodies of young people were burnt on tires in public.

If the PM’s threat was couched in language that was not overtly threatening, his party members have been less obvious. In several instances they have attacked andthreatened protestors.

In Colombo, an SLPP backed procession of Buddhist Monks and party activists warned those they deemed were attempting to undermine the Sinhala Buddhist mandate of the government. Banners they carried called on Sri Lankans to “protect the Sinhala Buddhist government.” The procession which began at the Vihara Maha Devi Park was expected to end at the Galle Face, but simply frizzled out part way.
The SLPP is clearly not shying away from playing the race card, despite the unity displayed at the protests.

One of the organizers of the march, ultra-nationalist Dan Priyasad, a strong Rajapaksa supporter threatened the protestors. He said “we know who you are. Once this wave of protests dies, we will come for you.” Priyasad was once arrested and charged by police for attacking a UN safehouse that provided shelter to Rohingya refugees. He was also named a suspect in the attacks on Muslims in Digana where hundreds of Muslims were assaulted, their homes and businesses damaged and at least one person was killed.

Pro-government groups too claim that the protest movement aimsto bringdown the Sinhala-Buddhist government, a divisive card that the Rajapaksas have played successfullyevery time. Naturally, images of Muslims breaking the Ramadan fast at Galle Face and at Independence Square, Christian clergy, including the Cardinaljoining the protest have not gone down well with either the government or their party supporters.

Dan Priyasad threatened them as well, mentioning Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith by name.
That does not bode well, as the threat of state violence hangs over the protest movement and by extension the entire country.

Up to now there have been no clashes between protestors and the police. The cops have been tolerant and have moved freely without incident.

There was one emblematic incident outside the Parliament on the last day of the sittings that sent a shiver down the spines of many. At least two motorcycles carrying masked men armed with assault rifles and wearing camouflage uniforms rode towards a group of protestors.

Such squads, shadowy and acting with impunity have been tools of repression in the past, both in the North and the South of the country.

The Army owned up to the patrol, with Army Commander Gen Shavendra Silva demanding disciplinary action against the police officers who shooed away the armed motorcyclists. It is not known whether the police officers were disciplined by their bosses.

Foreign commentators watching Sri Lanka have begun referring to the Galle Face demonstration site as Sri Lanka’s Tahrir Square. That is the place where tens of thousands of Egyptians gathered to eventually oust President Hosni Mubarak in 2011.

Whether that will be the future for Sri Lanka is yet to be seen.

If Parliament responds genuinelyto the battle cry of the people, defeats the government on the floor of the House and then repeals the laws that give the Presidency unlimited power, then this moment in time will end well for the good of the people. One must also hope that, in such an event, those who rise to lead the country, have a firm, clear and transparent plan.

If the Rajapaksas dig in their heels and unleash their goons, or worse, use state power to repress the protests, the result will be ugly, and Sri Lanka will descend into chaos or worse. In the meantime, the resistance lives on.

The latest viral video in the country is emblematic.

It is a Sinhala version of the internationally famous anti-Fascist Anthem best known by its original Italian title BellaCiao (Goodbye my beauty.)

It is a song that embodies resistance by ordinary people against Fascism before and after World War Two, and tells the tale of a rebel fighter bidding goodbye to his sweetheart as he heads into an uncertain future.

Ranjit Fernando is a former Secretary to the Ministry of Industrial Policy, Investment Promotion, and Entrepreneurship development, and former Director/CEO of The National Development Bank of Sri Lanka

A draft National Policy for Industrial Development of Sri Lanka (NaPID) prepared by a Task Force (TF) led by the eminent Economist Prof. SirimalAbeyratne, has been released recently.

The policy prescriptions proposed in the draft paper are based, inter alia, on a comprehensive “Industry Diagnosis Report” (IDR), which was also released simultaneously.

The important role that the industrial sector plays in promoting overall economic growth in a country needs no particular emphasis. The industrial sector in addition to making its own contribution to economic growth, also triggers growth in the other two sectors. Agro processing industries encourage the increased production of raw materials resulting in additional investment in the agricultural sector. A significant percentage of projects in the services sector exists to meet the demands of the industrial sector.

For these and other reasons an Industrial Policy statement by the government deserves serious attention. The policy statement is an official pronouncement by the government of the measures it proposes to take to promote sustainable industrial development and augment industrial production. A great majority of the industrial output in a country are tradeables.

Thus, trade and industrial policies complement each other. Accordingly, policy makers strive to achieve a great degree of congruence between a country’s trade policies and its industrial policies. Together they have the potential of being and are often referred to as the twin engines that drive economic growth in a country. In fact, in countries such as Singapore trade and industry are under one ministry and consequently under the purview of one minister.

It is not my intention, nor is it practical, to engage in a clause by clause analysis of the draft policy document. What I wish to do is to comment on two matters. Firstly, on some critical conceptual issues, central to the designing of an Industrial Policy and how those critical issues have been dealt with by the Task Force (Sections 2 to 5).Secondly, I intend commenting on some specific provisions in the draft NaPID. (Section 6)

1. FOR WHOM IS THE POLICY STATEMENT?

A constructive approach to analyzing the Policy Statement may be to firstly, answer the question “To whom is the Policy statement addressed? An industrial Policy statement is addressed to the stakeholders of the sector. Who are these stakeholders?

The two main stakeholders will obviously be the Government and the Industrialists. The lead role for the Government will in this instance be played by the Ministry of Industries while a key supporting role will be played by the Ministry of Trade. The industrialists will be represented by their accredited Chambers and by leading industrialists with years of experience. Since the performance of the industrial sector will greatly influence the overall performance of the Economy, the informed Public too will be indirect stakeholders.
What will both groups want to see in the report?

While existing and potential industrialists, and officials who will be directly involved in implementing the policies and monitoring progress, will be interested in the detail, stakeholders who are looking at the big picture, will I believe, be more interested to find out the broad direction in which the sector is expected to grow, with the implementation of the new Policies. In other words,what changes to the sector’s present characteristics, it’s composition, role and positioning, would the framers of the new set of Policies, want to bring about via the implementation of the new Policies?

2. THE DIRECTION OF SRI LANKA’S INDUSTRIAL POLICY.

The Task Force, prior to settling down to the actual task of drafting the set of Policies, would have asked themselves, and perhaps some other key stakeholders, the question- What do we want the sector to be, after implementing the new policies? In what direction should the Policies we frame, drive the sector as a whole, given the critical contribution expected of the sector. What is the audacious Goal we have for the sector? Can wepropose a set of Policies that is likely to lead the sector towards thatGoal?

The Task Force appears to answer these questions in Section 2.1 of the Industry Diagnostic Report as follows;

“TheDirection of SriLanka’s Industrial Policy.For Sri Lanka’s industrial policy to succeed in the 21st century, it must adjust to new national, regional and global contexts, including digitalization and growing sustainability challenges. These are among the considerations that have informed the approach taken in the process of drafting this draft report for the National Policy for Industrial Development (NaPID), which is based on the objectives set out in Sri Lanka’s National Policy Framework for 2020-2025: “Vistas of Prosperity and Splendor”, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and the “Sustainable Development Goals” (SDGs). In addition, a key development that cannot be ignored in Sri Lanka’s NaPID is the impact of COVID-19”.

It appears that the Task Force have themselves identified the need for the industrial sector, not only to grow statistically in terms of the usual performance measuring ratios, but to grow in terms of playing a wider and decisive role dictated by national needs. The report in Section 2.1 of the IDR cites three sources whose priorities ought to set the direction of growth of the sector. These sources are;

(1) The “Vistas of Prosperity and Splendor” document,
(2) The Sustainable Development Goals, and
(3) Changes required to conform to Green industry and fourth industrial Revolution.

The draft report submits that the priorities identified in the first two documents mentioned above, are relevant and must be taken into account in drafting Sri Lanka’s Industrial Policy. The first named document was the election manifesto of the ruling Party published prior to the last Presidential Election. The IDR on page 9lists the priorities extractedfrom the “Vistas” document. They are the following:

1. Priority to National Security
2. Friendly, Non-aligned, Foreign Policy
3. An administration free from corruption
4. New Constitution that fulfils the people’s wishes.
5. Productive Citizenry and a vibrant Human resource
6. People Centric Economic Development
7. Technology Based Society
8. New Approach in National Spatial system
9. Sustainable Environmental Management
10. Disciplined, Law abiding and values

A table on page 10 of the report, attempts to set out the relevance of these priorities, to the Industrial sector. It lists out some specific Objectives and Strategies arising from those priorities, in columns one and two of the Table.Column three states in which way they are relevant to Sri Lanka’s Industrial Policy.

Section 2.1.2 deals with the second source. Seventeen priorities or specific goals have been identified from the second source, viz the Sustainable Development Goals, which many readers may be familiar with. They include; 1.End Poverty, 2.End Hunger & achieve food security, 3.Ensure Healthy lives, 4.Ensure inclusive & equitable quality education, etc.

Table 2 attempts to show the relevance of the SDG goals and its specific objectives, in guiding the formulation of the Industrial Policy.

.
With regards to the third source viz the transition to Green Growth and the influence of the fourth industrial revolution, Section 2.2 of the IDR, explains the importance of local industry complying with these new realities. The Industrial Policies proposed must result in an Industrial sector that is compliant of these requirements.

None of the above priorities are objectionable in themselves. But the relevant question is; Can any of them provide direction in the formulation of the Industrial Policy?The priorities identified from the first two documents are laudable objectives and no doubt of relevancein the context of the purposes for which they were initially prepared. However, their influence in directing the shape and content of the Industrial Policy, appears to be remote. The industrial sector needs to comply with many of them. But can they be the directional force behind the Industrial Policy?

The attempt to connect up the priorities identified in these documents to the approach in formulating the industrial Policy and its contents, it is respectfully submitted, looks contrived and unreal. A review of the first two items in Table 1 alone, will make one realize how tenuous the link is between the priorities identified in the “Vistas” document and the particular aspect selected from the Policy statement.For instance, what is the likelihood or relevance of developing a strategic Trade relationship with a country, for the purpose of maintaining a Non-aligned Foreign Policy? How relevant will the removal of Tariff charges to enhance technology imports be, on maintaining People centered Economic development or vise visa?

The priorities identified in the “Vistas” document are mostly Good Governance concerns and not directly related to the Industrial sector. Recognizing them individually or collectively as a directional force that will, shape the future Industrial Policy, needs a stretch of one’s imagination. Page 15 of the IDR states quite correctly that “Industrial Policy must direct socialinclusion, environment protection and economic growth”.Industrialists must of course conform to them.One can even envisageprescribing compliance with same.On the other hand they may be the result of implementing a sound Industrial Policy. But they cannot be the driving force of the Industrial Policy. Further, the “Vistas” document was the Election Manifesto of the ruling party, at the last Presidential election. Adopting priorities arising from that document as one of the directional sources for shaping the industrial Policy, is a near certain way of ensuring that the document will be abrogated, if and when there is a change of the governing party.

Similar comments apply to the choice of the Sustainable Development Goals, as a force, setting the direction of the Industrial Policy. There is no doubt that the growth in the industrial sector will contribute to the eradication of Poverty, or in ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education. However, by what stretch of imagination could one imagine that those laudable goals will be focused upon when the industrial Policy is being formulated? For the above reasons, it is submitted with respect, that the direction presumed to be provided (in fact the absence of it) by the two documents referred to above, are inappropriate.

2.1. How should one pick an alternate direction?

Setting the right Policy direction for the sector, in today’s context, requires one to understand and appreciate the present state of the Sector, viz its strengths and weaknesses, constraints to growth, and where the greatest potential for growth lies, given the trends that are clearly discernible bothlocally and globally. The industrial sector in Sri Lanka is inward looking, and are faced with the limitations of size and purchasing Power of the local market.

The strong lobby for protection that is becoming louder by the day, is a definite sign of the sector being uncompetitive in the global market, both in terms of price and quality. Most local industries are at a low level of technology and the local value added is also at a low level. Wage increases during the last few years has significantly eroded the cost advantage the country enjoyed as a low- cost location. The direction in which the future growth of the sector be driven, and its end destination, should address most of the weaknesses identified above.

As an alternative to the direction proposed in the NaPID, and given the present state of the sector as described above, in what direction should the proposed Industrial Policies, drive the industrial sector? It should drive the sector to where the greatest potential for growth lies.

In selecting the direction of growth, we should also not be constrained by any particular ideology. The sole criterion should be “What is good for the sector and the country”. Several research studies have focused in identifying the factors that helped Singapore reach the pre-eminent position it occupies today.One among four factors that have been identified by several studies is a principle which has been consistently followed by all governments that ruled the country, since it broke away from the confederation. Viz National Policies were decided on the single criterion of “What was best for the country “. The Government was indifferent as to which ideology or “..ism”the particular Policy subscribed. In the popular words of that great leader Deng Zia Peng, “It matters not whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches the mice”.

A direction which will meet the aforementioned criteria, but one that is at the same time challenging, is to direct the Sri Lankan industrial sector, to integrate itself with the global industrial sector.Transformingthelocal industrial sector, from an inward looking, state led, import substituting posture to one that is outward looking, export oriented, globally competitive, would be a formidable challenge.But it is a challenge, lesser countries have taken on and achieved much progress.

The transformation of the local industrial sector from what it is today, to a robust, globally competitive, and export focused one, will no doubt be a daunting and challenging task. A strong commitment by the government and a change of the direction of the NaPID to something similar to what is proposed above viz. “to design our industrial policies with a view to integrating our industrial sector with global industry”, will enable the Government to play the Lead Role in securing the commitment of the organized local industrial community to accept this challenge.

If the above is accepted as the direction in which the industrial sector should grow, then the Industrial Policy document should contain Policies that encourages and incentivizes all stakeholders to move in that direction. For instance, the Policies proposed must offer assistance to the sector players to overcome their present weaknesses, and to acquire new skills. They must become Globally competitive. Our industrialists must be encouraged to follow the trends in the global industrial sector.They must be encouraged and assisted in visiting regular global fairs and exhibitions which focus on new technologies.

The Policies must promote ways and means of our industrialists establishing joint ventures and alliances with Global players. We should install Policies that will not leave room for developments in the Global industrial sector, such as the phenomenal growth achieved by the Global Value chain (GVC) business, ever bypass Sri Lanka. The Global Value Chain business today is said to account for 70-80% of global Trade.The current account surplus of US$ 12.5B achieved by Vietnam in 2019, is largely attributed to its success in attracting GVC business.

Sri Lanka has limited manufacturing capability unlike countries that can boast of advanced manufacturing capability. It has been found that in countries with limited manufacturing capability, technology transfer and the linking up with Global value chains takes place mostly via Foreign Direct Investment (FDIs). Thus, our Policies must encourage FDIs and incentivize our industrialist to identify suitable Joint venture partners and approach them directly. Our embassies overseas should help them schedule one to onemeetings with the decision makers of the Target Companies.

It has been reported that disruptions and delays caused by COVID recently, has highlighted the susceptibilities of GVC arrangements and how a delay in the supply of one component can force companies to breach supply contracts for delivery of the finished product. This may be the opportunity for Sri Lanka to enter the fray. It has also been pointed out that instead of marketing the country as a low wage and therefore a low-cost country we should strategize on marketing cleaner production, environment friendly processes etc for industries such as dyeing in the textile industry.(charith.gamage@monash.edu).

While there may be good reason to classify “small” and “medium” industries together as one category named “Small and Medium Scale Industries”, there are also circumstances when the two categories ought to be treated differently. There are many medium scale industries which are owner operated, set up by professionals who have returned to the country after studying and working overseas for a number of years. They are generally well organized, profitable ventures producing quality goods serving local demand. There is much potential in encouraging these establishments to focus on the export markets. If 50 of these establishments can be identified for a start, and assisted to explore overseas markets there is good prospect of success in the short to medium term. The Policy statement must initiate promotional activities of this type in collaboration with Banks and other promotional agencies.

A concerted effort must be made to equip all Bankers with the tools that enable them to evaluate a request for finance from an industrial outfit, based on the RISK inherent in the proposal, rather than on the Security offered.Every investment project has its own Risk. The purpose in evaluating a project is to assess that Risk and to take steps, together with the project proponent, to lower that Risk. Project evaluation is not an adversarial process. Engaging the potential borrower in a joint effort to reformulate the project to reduce the Risk and make it more viable can be a rewarding experience. Security is not a substitute for viability.

3.THE PATH TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Reference was made in the introductory section of this paper to the close relationship that exists between Industrial and Trade Policy. A liberalized industrial Policy as proposed cannot co-exist within a restricted and protective trade regime. Trade as a percentage of GDP has come down drastically ie from almost 90% in the year 2000, to approx. 40% in 2020. The Government has a clear choice to make.

The ongoing debate on the preferred path for achieving rapid Industrial growth in a small country, that is unable to influence neither the globally traded quantity nor the price of a particular tradeable, revolves around two schools of thought. One, that espouses the merits of an Industrialization strategy that is based on a liberalized economy that is fully integrated with the global economy, and the other, which places a premium on self-reliance and focusses on a strategy of import substitution, under the guiding hand of the state. Industrial Policy In Sri Lanka, has alternated between these two models depending on which Political Party was in Power. While frequent changes in Policy, of the kind we have experienced in Sri Lanka, brings about a sense of uncertainty and is likely to have discouraged investment in the Industrial sector at times in the past, it has unwittingly provided useful information, on the performance of the industrial sector as well as the economy, under each policy regime.

The diagnostic study accompanying the NaPID, includes a detailed analysis of the periodic Political regime changes that has occurred during the 72 year post independent history of Sri Lanka, the consequent changes in economic Policy, as well as how the economy has reacted to such Policy changes. Unfortunately, the above information is in different sections of the report, thereby rendering the cause and effect relationship between one change and the other, less transparent. In contrast, the results of a similar analysis, carried out by Professor Prema-chandraAthukorale,( Arndt-Corden Department of Economics Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University ) published first as a working paper in Trade and development for the Australian National University, and later as an article in the Daily FT, is presented with greater clarity highlighting the causal relationship between one change and the other.

The research paper of Mr Prema- Chandra Athukorale referred to above, has dealt extensively with these regime changesand more importantly, the manner in which the economy and the industrial sector had responded to the differentPolicy regimes that prevailed at different times. I cannot do better than summarizing his submissions on the changing fortunes of the economy during the different Policy regimes.

1. Growth of manufacturing in the Sri Lankan economy was lackluster during the state led import substitution era. The averageannual growth in the early stages of import substitution era (1990s) was approx. 8.5%, dropping to a mere 3% by 1970-7.

2. The manufacturing sector entered a distinct growth phase following the liberalization reforms. Contrary to gloomy predictions by the critics of reform, the lifting of import controls did not result in a sudden massive contraction. Following initial adjustments to the new the competitive market setting, manufacturing growth surpassed that of all other sectors during most years in the next two decades.

3. From the 1970s to about the late 90s, manufacturing grew at an annual average growth rate of about 6.5%, compared to an overall GDP growth rate of 5.3%. The manufacturing share of GDP recorded an almost two-fold increase from 10% in the 1970s to nearly 20% by the early 2000s.

4. There has been a dramatic shift in the ownership structure of the manufacturing sector, during this period. The share of SOEs in manufacturing output dropped from about 70% in the mid 70s to less than 3% by the turn of the century. The shrinking of the role of the SOEs in manufacturing had a salutary effect on productivity improvements in the manufacturing sector.

5. At the time the reforms started, manufacturing accounted for about 10% of total employment in the country. This increased continuously to over 18% by mid 2010s.

6. The total employment in enterprises approved by the BOI increased from about 11,000 in 1980 increased to nearly half a million by 2015.

7. The share of foreign invested enterprises in total manufacturing exports increased from 24% in 1977 to 80% in mid 1995. The share of BOI approved enterprises in total manufacturing exports ranged from 80% to 92% during the period 2002 to 2019.

8. The share of developing countries in world manufacturing exports increased significantly in 1970s and thereafter. From 10% in the 1970s it increased to over 50% by the late 2010s. Sri Lanka’s share of manufacturing exports from that of all developing countries increased from 0.02 % in 1976 to over0.28% by early 2000s.

Source; “Rethinking Sri Lanka’s Industrialization strategy”Prema-chandraAthukorale.

The NaPID does a similar analysis of the ups and downs experienced by the sector during the different Policy regimes and concludes as follows;

“LEARNING FROM THE PAST: IMPORT SUBSTITUTION VS EXPORT- ORIENTED LIBERALIZATION. Over the last 7 decades, since Sri Lanka claimed independence in 1948 Sri Lanka has experimented with a wide variety of trade policy regimes – from open, ‘non-interventionist’, free market policies (1948-to 1959/60) through dirigisme import substitution industrialization (ISI) (1960-1977) to export oriented liberalization (post-1977). There is a large body of literature attempting to make an in-depth and systematic assessment on past trade policies and industrial strategies adopted over the last seven decades. A closer examination of this literature has revealed there are mixed views on which strategic trade policies have delivered desired results. Trade policy regimes adopted by Sri Lanka can be divided into the following two components:

1. Import Substitution or inward oriented trade policies.
2. Export oriented or outward oriented trade policies.

In theory, these two policy options when put into practice are distinctively different from each other.

1. Import Substitution and performance from 1960-1977

Import substitution, a term both descriptive and prescriptive- is one of the development economics frameworks largely pioneered in the 1950s by economists RaúlPrebisch, Gunnar Myrdal, W. Arthur Lewis, Albert Hirschman, and Ragnar Nurkse. The key policy aspects focus on imports and exchange controls, using tariffs for protection of domestic industries on the basis of infant industry arguments. The key thrust to the strategy was an assumption that replacing imports would reduce dependence on imports and set the stage for self-sustained growth. Thinking that these policies would be beneficial, Sri Lanka pursued a state-led import- substitution development strategy beginning from the 1960s and this foreign trade strategy prevailed in most of the 1970s, making the Sri Lankan economy one of the most restrictive economies until 1977. “By the mid-1970s the Sri Lankan economy was one of the most inward-oriented and regulated economies outside the communist bloc, characterized by stringent trade and exchange controls and pervasive state interventions in all areas of economic activity.

In terms of the performance achieved during this closed economic regime it has been pointed out that Sri Lanka encountered a range of economic setbacks. Inflation, unemployment and poverty were rising; Sri Lanka was facing severe pressure due to a widening trade deficit which emerged in the mid-1970s. The situation in the external sector further worsened.

Immediately after the first oil shock in 1973, to which government responded by introducing more stringent measures, increasing controls on imports. The unsustainability resulting from these inward-looking protectionist trade and industrialization policies led to a regime change in 1977, with a landslide victory for, a pro-western, market-oriented right-wing government.

2. Export- Oriented trade liberalization policies from 1977 to 2003

As a response to the poor economic performance of inward-looking import substitution policies, in 1977, Sri Lanka embarked on a comprehensive economic liberalization process, introducing a landmark economic reform package. It became the first country in the South Asian region to introduce a set of policy changes introducing a far-reaching trade liberalization reform agenda. Accordingly, the first wave of trade reforms implemented during 1977-79 included the replacement of quantitative import restrictions with tariffs and the revision of the tariff system to achieve greater uniformity; the reduction of foreign investment restrictions with new incentives for export-oriented foreign investment under the attractive Free Trade Zone (FTZ) scheme.; financial reform and the adjustment of interest rates supported for exports to grow more positively. In order to further strengthen the outward orientation of the country, Sri Lanka implemented a second trade liberalization package in 1990. The key elements of this reform package included Government privatization programs, simplification of the tariff structure with further tariff cuts and removal of restrictions on current account transaction, and several important changes to foreign investment policy. An export-oriented open trade regime dictated the industrial development agenda, which remained in place until the late 1990s.

An assessment carried out by World Bank in 2004 on Sri Lanka’s economic performance during the reform era stated that ‘It would be hard to find a more convincing case of trade and industrial transformation of a small island economy through market-friendly policy reforms’. By the late 1900s, the Sri Lankan economy was considered as one of the most open economies in the developing world”. (Sources: Industry Diagnosis Report. Pages 90 and 91).

Recent decisions by the Government in response to the spread of COVID, and the severe dearth of Foreign currency even for financing the import of essential raw materials required for industry, appear to lead the country slowly but surely to the recreation of the closed economy model that prevailed in the pre 1977 era. The recently released “State of the Economy 2021” publication by the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, refers to these developments as follows;

“Recently Sri Lanka started to use Restrictive Trade Policy Tools to mitigate the COVID 19 induced Foreign Exchange crisis. Various forms of quantitative restrictions and Tariff increases were used to discourage imports. For instance, in April 2020 imports of 750 productsat eight digitHS code, worth US 1,353 million at 2019 import prices were suspended temporarily. Additionally, imports of 634 products at eight digit HS code worth US$ 3232 million at 2019 import prices were subjected to the requirement of a credit facility of three months.” (Chapter 4 page 67)

The detailed analysis in Chapter 4, clearlydemonstrates that import restrictions are not thesolution to the problems it is supposed to solve. The analysis which is too lengthy to reproduce here concludes “Hence inward-looking Policies will not solve the Forex crisis but aggravate it, resulting in additional costs like domestic monopolies, rent seeking quotas, corruption in granting licenses, encouraging black market and smuggling activities and opening the door to retaliation from trade partners.” (page 68).

The door to retaliation referred to in the final part of the above quote was opened recentlyas predicted, when the EEC issued a statement that it cannot accept for long, the recent restrictions imposed on imports, from the EU countries too, when the latter keeps assisting exports from Sri Lanka to the EU countries via the GSP + scheme.

Much of the same empirical and research data referred to above, supporting the view that an export led industrial Policy together with a liberalized Trade Policy has and will best serve the growth of the industrial sector, is included in the Industry Diagnostic Report accompanying the IaPID. TheIaPIDhowever, does not make a categorical statement that an Export led, Liberalized Trade Policy will be maintained throughout the currency of the proposed Policy. What is proposed is a “Mixed Economy” with selective import substitution, picking of winners and export orientation. While specific intervention in support of import substitution projects,

exceptionally selected, can be justified for reasons such as those set out on page 9, the extension ofstate support for winners (euphemistically referred to as “thrust” industries) picked by committees of whatever composition, is not only a misallocation of state resources, but also a cause of confusion in the market.

4.ROLE OF GOVERNMENT

The sections quoted above from the “Industry Diagnosis report” makes it clear that the Task Force has, as a lesson learnt from the past experience of Sri Lanka, concluded that the Export oriented trade liberalization Policies in the post 1977 period had a significant beneficial effect, inter alia, on the growth of the industrial sector, while under the import substitution Policies “Sri Lanka encountered a range of economic setbacks, inflation, unemployment and Poverty were rising”. The report also states that an assessment carried out by World Bank in 2004 on Sri Lanka’s economic performance during the reform era stated that ‘It would be hard to find a more convincing case of trade and industrial transformation of a small island economy through market-friendly policy reforms”. By the late 1900s, the Sri Lankan economy was considered as one of the most open economies in the developing world”.

It concludes stating that “several empirical studies have shown that outward-looking export promotion strategy has produced better results in accelerating the manufactured growth in contrast to import substitution strategy”. (page 96)

The NaPID , based on the findings of the Diagnostic study, has in Section 4 of the Policy document set out nine “Policy Principles” which captures the essential purpose of the Industrial Policy. The second of these nine principles is the following. “Competitive integration with international markets”, which objective was submitted by the writer as the preferred direction of the NaPID. It will be noted that the implementation of this principle viz. “Competitive integration with international markets “can be effectively implemented only against a framework of an export oriented, open economic developmental policy regime being already in place within the country. In terms of this model, the state is expected to play a non-interventionist role, focusing mainly on the task of creating and maintaining a conducive environment for industry to function. The state, under the export oriented economic model, was not expected to pick winners by which is meant, the selection of industries for investment, by the state ( ie.byBureaucrats).

In this context it is interesting to read what the Task Force has to say about potential interventions by the Government in general, and the picking of winners, in particular.

The quest for answers runs parallel to protests over economic issues that have been the springing up across the country. They are exacerbated by the quiet but unrelenting pressure exerted by the Catholic Church and human rights activists over the attacks on their churches and the resulting deaths of hundreds of worshippers.

And as we witnessed recently, the mounting pressure seems to have irked President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Speaking at the opening of the New Kelani bridge, the Head of State revealed that he is troubled by the continuing questions being raised about the multiple issues the government is facing.

In the past weeks, protests have been intensified by farmers, workers, teachers, and lots of others who voted for this President. In his speech, the President criticized the main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya for bringing thousands of protestors to Colombo, saying they were not a “responsible opposition” for ignoring COVID related guidelines. There was no mention however, that police had been deployed at various points to prevent protestors from travelling to Colombo that day.

He also conveniently forgot that a huge crowd attended the unveiling of a gigantic stupa that commemorated the victory of the Armed Forces against the LTTE in Anuradhapura which he and other members of his government were attended. In fact, the unveiling of the Stupa, was criticized by a vocal minority of the Buddhist clergy who said it was un-Buddhistic to celebrate a victory in armed conflict without seeking reconciliation.

President Rajapaksa said that the Presidential Commission of Inquiry into the blasts had faulted the former President, Prime Minister and the Ministers for the Easter attacks. He said that he has handed over all the information to the police and the Attorney General and the “law will take its course. We have to trust them.”

In his speech he also issued a veiled threat to former President Maithripala Sirisena, former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and the “entire Cabinet” of the former administration that he could use the two-third’s majority he commands in Parliament to deprive them of their civic rights over this issue.
That threat strains the fragile relations between the ruling Sri Lanka PodujanaPeramuna and its main ally, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party.

A day or two later, Sirisena, the Leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, fired back in Parliament. Participating in the Budget debate when the topic of allocations for the Office of the President came up, Sirisena reserved his invective for the agriculture minister Mahindananda Aluthgamage, blaming him for the government’s unpopularity. “You made the farmers burn your own effigies,” he said.
In his speech Sirisena said that “if we are attacked, we know how to strike back. We may not know Boxing, but we know how to strike.” His was an oblique warning to the threats directed at him.

In a move reminiscent of the book and film on Chess, the Queen’s Gambit the SLFP leader reminded the ruling coalition it was his party’s 14 Members of Parliament that gives the government the majority that Rajapaksa threatens to use to change the constitution and if needed deprive anyone of their Civic Rights.

Sirisena told Parliament that infighting within coalition governments have repeatedly brought down administrations. He advised the government to look at the issue more critically and intelligently. “Since 1947, governments in this country were established with the support of other parties, and these alliances broke off along the way,” he warned. He said that political events in the past five to six decades has shown that governments have fallen due to coalition partners breaking off. “This government is also a coalition with 11 parties supporting it,” he reminded everyone.

Though President Rajapaksa says that “all” the information contained in the Inquiry report has been released, Opposition MPs however charge that only one of the 22 volumes of the report have been made public. The government has not explained why the bulk of the report and the recommendations have not been released.

Background

The Easter Sunday attacks was the worst act of terror that the island had faced since the end of the separatist war in 2009. It came from a Muslim extremist group against another minority, the Christians. The terrorists also attacked 3 five-star hotels, dealing a massive blow to the country’s biggest money-spinner, the tourism industry. Some 260 people were killed, many more maimed for life.

For a generation which had grown up during the war, it seemed the horrors of conflict had returned as pictures of the churches and hotels where the blasts took place, on the most joyous day of the Christian religious calendar, and blood splattered bodies flooded social media.

There were multiple effects of that tragedy. First, the anti-Muslim rhetoric fed by racist politicians and nationalists, prior to the attack simply reached a crescendo. The assiduous attacks by the state sponsored racists such as the BoduBalaSena were justified. Banners came up overnight at street corners and outside government building condemning the attacks and sympathising with Christians, a show of support never before seen even when the LTTE ploughed explosive laden vehicles into the Central Bank, for instance, killing nearly a hundred.

Was it all orchestrated?

Until the Easter Sunday attack, in Sri Lanka where tensions between religious groups are not uncommon, rarely, or never have there been issues between Muslims and Christians. Within days of the attack, Gotabaya Rajapaksa declared his candidacy for the Presidency. The campaign was launched with an emphasis that the Yahapalanaya government had neglected National Security and the Easter attacks were the result.

The strikes also served to split the Muslim and Christian votes. After the attacks Catholic voters in particular, till then mostly supporters of the United National Party, overwhelmingly turned to the SLPP. Many Muslims were simply fearful of voting. In the run-up to the election the SLPP candidate Rajapaksa pledged to “bring justice” to the victims of the attacks.

The preferred official line of the Rajapaksa administration about the Easter attacks is the most convenient. Wahhabis Zaharan Hashim was the leader and mastermind, he blew himself up, end of story. The frontline peddler of this theory is the new Director General of the Institute of Security Studies Dr Rohan Guneratne. “There is no conspiracy behind this,” he told interviewers at TV stations Adaderana and Swarnavahini.

But questions arise

What stirred the pot of those who believed otherwise was the statement made by the outgoing Attorney General Dappula de Livera in May this year. In an interview with NewsFirst he said, “there is a Grand Conspiracy with regard to the 2019 April Attacks.” He added that the information provided by “the State Intelligence Service with times, targets, places, method of attacks and other information is clear evidence there was a Grand Conspiracy in place.”

De Livera is among a few officials with access to all the documents, including the full report of the Presidential Commission that investigated the attacks, the Parliamentary select committee reports and the CID investigations. Why the police investigators into the blasts are yet to ask the former AG on what grounds he concluded there was a grand conspiracy, is a question that has gone unanswered.

In summation the questions being asked by those closely watching the issue and the government seems to be avoiding are:

– Why hasn’t the former Attorney General been asked to give a statement to the police about his public declaration that there was a “grand conspiracy” behind the Easter attacks?

– How come DIG Nilantha Jayawardana who was faulted by the Parliamentary Select Committee as well as the PCoI for dereliction of duty been made the state witness in the on-going case charging 25 people with the attacks? He was the first to receive information on the imminent attack, days before it took place and on Easter Sunday morning.

– Who was the State Intelligence Officer who met or contacted the bomber who did not carry out his attack and detonated himself at a guest house in Dehiwela?

– What were the alleged connections that the bombers had with Military Intelligence prior to the attack?

– Who was the intelligence officer said to be responsible for asking an intermediary to convince the Islamic State to claim responsibility for the attacks?

– Who is the officer with the call sign “sonic sonic?”

– Why was the person arrested by the CID, removed by the Military claiming it was “our project?’

– Why were those speaking on behalf of the victims, Fr. Cyril Gamini Fernanado, ShehanMalaka Gamage being before the CID, while others such as Dappula de Livera are left out?

For the Catholic Church, the promise of Justice for the victims is yet to be realised and anguish and consternation is now exploding in anger. Various lobby groups are agitating inside and outside the country for answers.

In a statement, the leading Prelate of Sri Lanka’s Catholics, Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith said the present government “took political advantage of the Easter Sunday attack and promised to reveal within a month those who carried out the attack”. He said, “It is clear from this procedure that after such a long time the government has no interest in finding out the truth about the attack and they are going to cover it up and wash their hands.” He said the country is still insecure and attacks like those of Easter Sunday could take place any time.

“The real killers must be identified, and the country must know the truth. Politicians do not want to end this culture of killing. Extremism is beneficial to them, and they continue their selfish journey through the tears of human suffering,” Cardinal Ranjith added.

His public statement followed a detailed letter the Church wrote to President Rajapaksa asking a number of questions, primarily why the government had not carried out the directives of the Presidential Committee of Inquiry. The Presidential Secretariat did respond through its Legal Officer but did not answer the primary question. Then, according to the Cardinal, in a telephone conversation the President had told him that if he carries out the directives, he would become unpopular.

Of late, Catholics, both lay and clergy have become more outspoken on the issue, questioning the lack of progress of the investigation and asking questions that are inconvenient for the government. The government’s response so far has been to haul these persons, particularly lay activist ShehanMalaka and Fr Cyril Gamini Fernando who has acted as a spokesman for the church on this matter, to the CID for questioning. Another, ChiranthaAmarasinghe who has been challenging the government for answers for several months too has faced harassment.

If the allegations are true that a “Deep State” orchestrated the Easter attacks with the dastardly aim of bringing to power the current President over a pile of bodies, it bodes ill. It is fundamental that that the government of President Rajapaksa, genuinely investigates the issue and reassure the nation, particularly those who lost children, friends and families that he and his government are above board.
If the President has evidence of Sirisena’s involvement in the Easter tragedy, then he must ensure the latter is brought to justice, instead of making oblique threats. The government must also explain why Nilantha Jayawardena, has been made a State witness, and why those who speak for the victims are being harassed.

As it stands, it seems like the government is not interested in bringing relief to the victims, giving credence to charges by critics of a cover up.

Hundreds of Catholics, including many priests and nuns lined the road leading to the Supreme Court on Nov 8 as a petition filed by Rev Cyril Gamini Fernando, a spokesman for the Catholic church calling on the apex court to prevent his arrest by the Criminal Investigation Department was heard. The protestors who were joined by some members of the Buddhist Clergy as well, did not shout slogans or hold placards. Instead, some silently prayed the Rosary.

Fr Cyril Gamini, as he is popularly known, had earned ire of the head of the State Intelligence Service Major General Suresh Salley by raising the question of how the intelligence agencies could have been unaware of the existence of the National Towheed Jamaat and its leader Mohammed Zaharan. He was participating in a webinar along with Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith on Oct 24 hosted by a group of Sri Lankan expatriates based in Australia. This group is among many that have formed overseas by concerned Sri Lankan Catholics calling for justice for the Easter Sunday attacks.

Maj Gen Salley complained that he had been defamed by this comment and called for an investigationalleging that the priest had endangered national security and incited communal disharmony. He could have been charged under the Sri Lankan Law modelled on the International Convention on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). The law has been abused by the Sri Lanka police in prosecuting several people including a Sinhala short story writer in the Kurunegala area and a Tamil language poet from Kattankudy.

Links between the intelligence services and Zaharan have been spoken of before. Prof Rajan Hoole in his book on the Easter Tragedy enumerated the many times Zaharan had been arrested but had been released due to pressure from the Security Forces. Several cabinet ministers have spoken about it and former Army Commander and Samagi Jana Balavegaya MP Sarath Fonseka gave more details in a speech in Parliament.

The Supreme Court ruled in Fr Cyril Gamini’s favor and the Attorney General’s Department pledged that the priest would not be arrested.

The following day saw a mass protest, a raucous parade of several thousand angry people from the Negombo area, a predominantly Catholic region of the island. They were calling for justice for the Easter Sunday attacks as well as protesting a government move to acquire and sell lands around the Negombo lagoon. The lands are within the Muthurajawela wet zone protected under the Ramsar treaty.Many people said they would lose their property if the government goes ahead and acquires their lands. The protest shut down the Negombo urban area and the police did not intervene. The protestors were joined by members of the Catholic clergy from parishes in the area.

The Catholic Church’s demand that the investigations into the Easter attack reveal who was the mastermind behind the blasts that killed some 260 people is gathering strength. The Church has shown it is unstoppable and is willing to fight for answers. Cardinal Ranjith has openly expressed his anger and disappointment against the government for failing to come up with answers to questions his congregationhas raised.

The Cardinal who was seen as leaning towards the Rajapaksas in the past has stood firm with his congregation on this issue. Fr Cyril Gamini is the public face of the protest and has been addressing concerned Catholic groups that are agitating for answers.

In the meantime, many famers’ groups worried about low yields after the government abruptly stopped the import of artificial fertilizer have continued to protest against the government, burning effigies of Agriculture Minister Mahindanda Aluthgamage and staging demonstrations in many areas.

The country’s teachers and Principals are also on the warpath after promised salary revisions were not granted to their protest. In early November teachers and principals in the Mawanella area surrounded a local police station alleging that the police had failed to arrest a governing party local councilor who had assaulted protesting teachers and parents.

And now riding on this wave of anti-government feeling the main opposition SJB wants to organize mass protests led by farmers next week on Nov 16. SJB MP Dr Harsha de Silva was quoted as saying “anyone” can join.

Inside the government the eleven smaller parties in the coalition have been making meek sounds of protest as well. These parties which include the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, Wimal Weerawansha’s National Freedom Front and Udaya Gammanpila’s Pivithuru Hela Urumaya have tried to form a caucus within the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna alliance. Although they have had several meetings with Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa to address their concerns, they are yet to leave the government or appear to reconcile.

The SLFP has been complaining of poor treatment by the leaders of the government and the SLPP General Secretary Sagala Kariyawasam told reporters that the smaller parties could leave the government if they wished to. While most of the dissidents are not raising their voice too high veteran Communist Party Member D E W Gunesekara called the current Cabinet the worst he has ever seen and “a bunch of buffaloes.” He also said that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is a “scarecrow” using a Sinhala term that can also mean he is without life.

Prime Minister Mahinda, however, seems to be more in touch with the feelings of the SLPP’s constituency. At the party convention held last week he upbraided the SLPP members for not being in touch with constituents. “We have to do politics with the farmers, teachers and others,” he said.

Coming up shortly of course are the Budget proposals. Most Sri Lankans are hoping there will be some relief for them from the rising cost of living and lack of jobs. But Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa has not been promising anything. Most likely the government may go ahead with cutting government pensions and other measures to pull the government out of its financial woes.

With rising protests, embarrassing questions over the Easter Sunday attacksand a perception among the ordinary people that the government is inept, the ingredients are there for a perfect storm.